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Rice (imported) in Bankass

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

460–590

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

447–652

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 447 and 652 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Bankass: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 447 and 652 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 900); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 472–562 521 455–609 569 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 467–574 520 434–640 578 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 460–590 517 399–693 576 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 449–618 510 406–812 568 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 447–652 505 403–900 592 –
Price history (208 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026534
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026521
May 2026472
Apr 2026575
Mar 2026540
Feb 2026525
Dec 2025550
Oct 2025560
Sept 2025512
Aug 2025520
May 2025580
Apr 2025631
Mar 2025638
Feb 2025615
Jan 2025638
Dec 2024638
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024592
Jun 2024580
May 2024500
Apr 2024508
Mar 2024570
Feb 2024520
Jan 2024551
Dec 2023460
Nov 2023525
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023511
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023510
May 2023490
Apr 2023490
Feb 2023490
Jan 2023505
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022520
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022472
Jun 2022450
May 2022429
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Jan 2022388
Dec 2021391
Nov 2021412
Oct 2021420
Sept 2021398
Aug 2021379
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021386
May 2021393
Apr 2021366
Mar 2021357
Feb 2021357
Jan 2021357
Dec 2020357
Nov 2020357
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020405
Feb 2020375
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019381
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018381
Oct 2018385
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018380
Jun 2018381
May 2018385
Apr 2018356
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017380
Sept 2017387
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017388
Jun 2017413
May 2017397
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016375
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016403
Jul 2016381
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015404
May 2015412
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015400
Dec 2014390
Nov 2014360
Oct 2014360
Sept 2014360
Aug 2014360
Jul 2014360
Jun 2014340
May 2014340
Apr 2014340
Mar 2014340
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014340
Dec 2013340
Nov 2013340
Oct 2013340
Sept 2013340
Aug 2013340
Jul 2013340
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012394
Nov 2011350
Oct 2011350
Sept 2011350
Aug 2011350
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011344
Dec 2010350
Nov 2010350
Oct 2010350
Sept 2010350
Aug 2010350
Jul 2010350
Jun 2010350
May 2010350
Apr 2010350
Feb 2010350
Jan 2010350
Dec 2009358
Nov 2009370
Oct 2009370
Sept 2009370
Aug 2009370
Jul 2009370
Jun 2009370
May 2009370
Apr 2009370
Mar 2009370
Feb 2009370
Jan 2009370
Dec 2008370
Nov 2008370
Oct 2008370
Sept 2008370
Aug 2008359
Jul 2008325
Jun 2008325
May 2008325
Apr 2008299
Mar 2008270
Feb 2008270
Jan 2008276
Dec 2007260
Nov 2007260
Oct 2007260
Sept 2007270
Aug 2007270
Jul 2007270
Jun 2007270
May 2007270
Apr 2007270
Mar 2007270
Feb 2007270
Jan 2007270

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-861-64-retail-kg.