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Maize in Bla

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

102–180

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

102–210

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 102 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 102 and 210 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Bla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 102 and 180 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 102 and 210 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 394); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 127–158 139 112–172 240 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 108–165 134 89.5–232 205 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 102–180 125 88.5–288 195 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 99.3–197 128 79.5–394 197 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 102–210 125 87.4–381 196 –
Price history (213 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026140
Jun 2026150
May 2026142
Apr 2026140
Mar 2026140
Feb 2026140
Jan 2026142
Dec 2025148
Oct 2025145
Sept 2025175
Aug 2025179
Jul 2025216
Jun 2025210
May 2025211
Apr 2025220
Mar 2025220
Feb 2025225
Jan 2025220
Dec 2024198
Nov 2024175
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024270
Aug 2024279
Jul 2024258
Jun 2024226
May 2024189
Apr 2024183
Mar 2024175
Jan 2024173
Nov 2023162
Oct 2023173
Sept 2023208
Aug 2023210
Jul 2023210
Jun 2023202
May 2023190
Apr 2023218
Mar 2023220
Feb 2023220
Dec 2022205
Nov 2022195
Oct 2022199
Sept 2022310
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022313
Jun 2022300
May 2022279
Apr 2022275
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022236
Jan 2022215
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021185
Oct 2021173
Sept 2021206
Aug 2021181
Jul 2021165
Jun 2021165
May 2021160
Apr 2021152
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021143
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020120
Nov 2020124
Oct 2020146
Sept 2020130
Aug 2020133
Jul 2020118
Jun 2020116
May 2020110
Apr 2020110
Mar 2020105
Feb 2020103
Jan 2020102
Dec 2019101
Nov 201998
Oct 2019100
Sept 2019100
Aug 2019110
Jul 2019110
Jun 2019118
May 2019115
Apr 2019115
Mar 2019120
Feb 2019120
Jan 2019112
Dec 2018120
Nov 2018112
Oct 2018130
Sept 2018188
Aug 2018175
Jul 2018175
Jun 2018175
May 2018175
Apr 2018162
Mar 2018149
Feb 2018149
Jan 2018141
Dec 2017135
Nov 2017126
Oct 2017126
Sept 2017157
Aug 2017347Data error
Jul 2017143
Jun 2017143
May 2017137
Apr 2017129
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017120
Jan 2017115
Dec 2016116
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016130
Sept 2016135
Aug 2016135
Jul 2016135
Jun 2016130
May 2016131
Apr 2016120
Mar 2016120
Feb 2016120
Jan 2016119
Dec 2015113
Nov 2015107
Oct 2015140
Aug 2015133
Jul 2015130
Jun 2015128
May 2015125
Apr 2015110
Mar 2015100
Feb 2015100
Jan 2015100
Dec 2014100
Nov 2014108
Oct 2014117
Sept 2014122
Aug 2014112
Jul 2014120
Jun 2014122
May 2014121
Apr 2014119
Mar 2014119
Feb 2014120
Jan 2014121
Dec 2013124
Nov 2013123
Oct 2013127
Sept 2013146
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013135
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012225
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012225
Oct 2011150
Sept 2011146
Aug 2011141
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011139
May 2011135
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011124
Dec 2010115
Nov 2010100
Oct 2010100
Sept 2010117
Aug 2010135
Jul 2010143
Jun 2010140
May 2010134
Apr 2010133
Mar 2010136
Feb 2010132
Jan 2010127
Dec 2009125
Nov 2009125
Oct 2009117
Sept 2009167
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009164
Jun 2009164
May 2009148
Apr 2009140
Mar 2009140
Feb 2009138
Dec 2008105
Nov 2008100
Oct 2008123
Sept 2008138
Aug 2008142
Jul 2008158
Jun 2008140
May 2008128
Apr 2008115
Mar 2008115
Feb 2008115
Jan 2008110
Dec 2007103
Nov 200796.7
Oct 200797.5
Sept 2007100
Aug 2007100
Jul 2007100
Jun 200790
May 200790
Apr 200790
Mar 200790
Feb 200790
Jan 200780

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-862-51-retail-kg.