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Sorghum in Bla

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

105–179

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

101–190

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 179 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 101 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Bla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 179 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 101 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 128–161 140 121–180 226 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 116–171 139 100–226 215 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 105–179 134 71.6–244 210 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 96–192 126 73.4–310 188 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 101–190 126 92.9–238 186 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026140
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026135
Apr 2026130
Mar 2026130
Feb 2026130
Jan 2026138
Dec 2025146
Oct 2025145
Sept 2025175
Aug 2025179
Jul 2025214
Jun 2025200
May 2025200
Apr 2025213
Mar 2025220
Feb 2025225
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024320
Sept 2024313
Aug 2024299
Jul 2024311
Jun 2024276
May 2024223
Apr 2024218
Mar 2024210
Jan 2024195
Nov 2023206
Oct 2023215
Sept 2023219
Aug 2023220
Jul 2023223
Jun 2023196
May 2023190
Apr 2023218
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023225
Dec 2022213
Nov 2022244
Oct 2022281
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022331
Jun 2022307
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022268
Feb 2022253
Jan 2022219
Dec 2021198
Nov 2021180
Oct 2021170
Sept 2021170
Aug 2021160
Jul 2021146
Jun 2021148
May 2021140
Apr 2021140
Feb 2021136
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020133
Oct 2020148
Sept 2020135
Aug 2020139
Jul 2020133
Jun 2020130
May 2020129
Apr 2020130
Mar 2020120
Feb 2020115
Jan 2020111
Dec 2019130
Nov 2019117
Oct 2019105
Sept 2019115
Aug 2019120
Jul 2019118
Jun 2019125
May 2019130
Apr 2019130
Mar 2019133
Feb 2019135
Dec 2018128
Nov 2018145
Oct 2018176
Sept 2018201
Aug 2018215
Jul 2018214
Jun 2018213
May 2018207
Apr 2018197
Mar 2018195
Feb 2018195
Jan 2018186
Dec 2017169
Nov 2017183
Oct 2017194
Sept 2017191
Aug 2017182
Jul 2017174
Jun 2017172
May 2017161
Apr 2017153
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017136
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016148
Oct 2016140
Sept 2016135
Aug 2016135
Jul 2016135
Jun 2016133
May 2016136
Apr 2016130
Mar 2016130
Feb 2016125
Dec 2015121
Nov 2015137
Oct 2015165
Aug 2015153
Jul 2015150
Jun 2015144
May 2015138
Apr 2015138
Mar 2015132
Feb 2015132
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014126
Nov 2014142
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014147
Aug 2014144
Jul 2014146
Jun 2014146
May 2014143
Apr 2014141
Mar 2014142
Feb 2014143
Jan 2014135
Dec 2013141
Nov 2013142
Oct 2013142
Sept 2013146
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013138
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012253
Jul 2012260
Jun 2012256
Oct 2011156
Sept 2011146
Aug 2011141
Jul 2011149
Jun 2011138
May 2011135
Apr 2011125
Mar 2011125
Feb 2011124
Dec 2010112
Nov 2010108
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010129
Aug 2010138
Jul 2010146
Jun 2010138
May 2010134
Apr 2010133
Mar 2010134
Feb 2010134
Jan 2010126
Dec 2009124
Nov 2009126
Oct 2009157
Sept 2009190
Aug 2009178
Jul 2009167
Jun 2009165
May 2009146
Apr 2009140
Mar 2009140
Feb 2009138
Dec 2008103
Nov 2008100
Oct 2008134
Sept 2008158
Aug 2008142
Jul 2008158
Jun 2008140
May 2008128
Apr 2008115
Mar 2008115
Feb 2008115
Dec 2007110
Nov 2007110
Oct 2007110
Sept 2007110
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007110
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 2007100
Feb 2007100

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-862-65-retail-kg.