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Rice (local) in Bla

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

364–493

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

355–491

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 364 and 493 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 355 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Bla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 364 and 493 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 355 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 384–495 415 354–509 501 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 375–502 415 336–507 498 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 364–493 413 285–503 483 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 360–501 410 301–556 469 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 355–491 406 300–514 473 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026412
Jul 2026518
Jun 2026413
May 2026412
Apr 2026413
Mar 2026412
Feb 2026412
Jan 2026435
Dec 2025438
Oct 2025440
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025459
Jun 2025450
May 2025453
Apr 2025463
Mar 2025463
Feb 2025463
Jan 2025463
Dec 2024456
Nov 2024475
Oct 2024535
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024478
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024463
May 2024473
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024425
Jan 2024434
Nov 2023453
Oct 2023463
Sept 2023469
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023463
May 2023463
Apr 2023472
Mar 2023525
Feb 2023525
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022447
Oct 2022478
Sept 2022473
Aug 2022444
Jul 2022419
Jun 2022413
May 2022406
Apr 2022386
Mar 2022378
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022369
Dec 2021363
Nov 2021366
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021353
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021347
Feb 2021338
Dec 2020338
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020338
Sept 2020338
Aug 2020338
Jul 2020330
Jun 2020325
May 2020325
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020318
Feb 2020312
Jan 2020312
Dec 2019312
Nov 2019338
Oct 2019337
Sept 2019337
Aug 2019337
Jul 2019337
Jun 2019337
May 2019337
Apr 2019337
Mar 2019337
Feb 2019337
Jan 2019365
Dec 2018362
Nov 2018366
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018368
Mar 2018362
Feb 2018362
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017355
Oct 2017378
Sept 2017378
Aug 2017347
Jul 2017342
Jun 2017343
May 2017338
Apr 2017336
Mar 2017338
Feb 2017338
Jan 2017331
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016329
Oct 2016343
Sept 2016341
Aug 2016329
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016327
May 2016329
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016323
Feb 2016313
Jan 2016320
Dec 2015332
Nov 2015333
Oct 2015359
May 2015346
Apr 2015315
Mar 2015313
Feb 2015313
Jan 2015311
Dec 2014308
Nov 2014319
Oct 2014338
Sept 2014338
Aug 2014314
Jul 2014297
Jun 2014309
May 2014305
Apr 2014191
Mar 2014293
Feb 2014298
Jan 2014313
Dec 2013308
Nov 2013309
Oct 2013313
Sept 2013318
Aug 2013316
Jul 2013316
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012384
Jun 2012403
Oct 2011381
Sept 2011374
Aug 2011351
Jul 2011325
Jun 2011330
May 2011345
Apr 2011314
Mar 2011296
Feb 2011296
Jan 2011298
Dec 2010311
Nov 2010315
Oct 2010315
Sept 2010320
Aug 2010318
Jul 2010316
Jun 2010310
May 2010315
Apr 2010315
Mar 2010314
Feb 2010309
Jan 2010335
Dec 2009321
Nov 2009311
Oct 2009324
Sept 2009329
Aug 2009331
Jul 2009332
Jun 2009331
May 2009338
Apr 2009340
Mar 2009344
Feb 2009336
Dec 2008346
Nov 2008338
Oct 2008362
Sept 2008400
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008344
May 2008335
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008300
Feb 2008288
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007284
Nov 2007288
Oct 2007288
Sept 2007288
Aug 2007288
Jul 2007288
Jun 2007289
May 2007288
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007268
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007267

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-862-71-retail-kg.