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Maize in Bougouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

152–217

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

143–239

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 152 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 143 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Bougouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 152 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 143 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 171–208 185 156–236 275 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 164–216 185 144–256 270 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 152–217 180 136–269 236 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 144–228 175 119–319 223 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 143–239 176 115–314 226 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026185
Jul 2026185
Jun 2026177
May 2026190
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025200
Jun 2025225
May 2025235
Apr 2025246
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025200
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024200
Oct 2024275
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024270
Jul 2024253
Jun 2024234
May 2024200
Apr 2024200
Mar 2024200
Jan 2024200
Nov 2023204
Oct 2023233
Sept 2023243
Aug 2023220
Jul 2023206
Jun 2023240
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022203
Nov 2022234
Oct 2022311
Sept 2022315
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022314
May 2022321
Apr 2022293
Mar 2022254
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021218
Oct 2021235
Sept 2021235
Aug 2021231
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021181
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020156
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018206
Aug 2018187
Jul 2018181
Jun 2018200
May 2018162
Apr 2018150
Mar 2018150
Feb 2018150
Jan 2018135
Dec 2017130
Nov 2017138
Oct 2017150
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017135
Jun 2017143
May 2017141
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016169
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015156
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015138
Feb 2015125
Jan 2015148
Dec 2014145
Nov 2014150
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014150
Aug 2014150
Jul 2014150
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014150
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014150
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013150
Nov 2013139
Oct 2013151
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013150
Sept 2012225
Aug 2012224
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012224
Oct 2011178
Sept 2011178
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011151
May 2011150
Apr 2011149
Mar 2011144
Feb 2011140
Jan 2011145
Dec 2010132
Nov 2010131
Oct 2010141
Sept 2010149
Aug 2010153
Jul 2010154
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010140
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009178
Jun 2009175
May 2009155
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009150
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009141
Dec 2008142
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008165
Sept 2008175
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008165
May 2008144
Apr 2008131
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008119
Dec 2007115
Nov 2007118
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007100
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 2007100
Mar 200798
Feb 2007100
Jan 200796.7

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-863-51-retail-kg.