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Rice (imported) in Bougouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

440–548

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

413–675

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 440 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 413 and 675 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Bougouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 440 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 413 and 675 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,095); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 455–515 486 436–561 525 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 448–531 486 422–624 524 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 440–548 485 391–653 519 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 428–615 485 374–914 520 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 413–675 478 366–1,095 508 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026490
Jul 2026490
Jun 2026490
May 2026492
Apr 2026490
Mar 2026490
Feb 2026490
Jan 2026490
Dec 2025490
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025540
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025584
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025584
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024563
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024480
Apr 2024495
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022460
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022431
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021435
Oct 2021413
Sept 2021410
Aug 2021399
Jul 2021379
Jun 2021375
May 2021394
Apr 2021395
Mar 2021363
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020438
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020370
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019368
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019356
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018375
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Dec 2016500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Apr 2016500
Mar 2016463
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016417
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015375
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015385
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014407
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014447
Aug 2014436
Jul 2014420
Jun 2014409
May 2014402
Apr 2014375
Mar 2014375
Feb 2014375
Jan 2014375
Dec 2013375
Nov 2013358
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013375
Aug 2013375
Jul 2013375
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011375
Apr 2011376
Mar 2011378
Feb 2011370
Jan 2011350
Dec 2010350
Nov 2010350
Oct 2010343
Sept 2010329
Aug 2010334
Jul 2010343
Jun 2010335
May 2010331
Apr 2010326
Mar 2010325
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009330
Jun 2009350
May 2009350
Apr 2009350
Mar 2009362
Feb 2009383
Jan 2009400
Dec 2008394
Nov 2008400
Oct 2008395
Sept 2008394
Aug 2008394
Jul 2008400
Jun 2008394
May 2008365
Apr 2008350
Mar 2008342
Feb 2008325
Jan 2008303
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007290
Sept 2007292
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007300
Apr 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007300
Jan 2007292

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-863-64-retail-kg.