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Sorghum in Bougouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

174–256

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

154–268

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 268 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Bougouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 256 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 268 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 189–225 202 176–253 297 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 180–237 203 162–289 300 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 174–256 203 155–371 295 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 163–273 200 144–401 282 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 154–268 195 123–340 258 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026214
Dec 2025241
Oct 2025248
Sept 2025236
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025278
Apr 2025278
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024318
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024313
Jun 2024283
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023252
Oct 2023254
Sept 2023255
Aug 2023259
Jul 2023231
Jun 2023240
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022375
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022363
Jun 2022350
May 2022338
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022238
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021217
Nov 2021210
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021199
Jul 2021199
Jun 2021181
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021181
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019193
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019156
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019155
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017175
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016169
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016169
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015175
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014172
Nov 2014195
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014180
Aug 2014181
Jul 2014185
Jun 2014185
May 2014185
Apr 2014185
Mar 2014185
Feb 2014185
Jan 2014184
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013174
Oct 2013190
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012249
Oct 2011198
Sept 2011180
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011151
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011147
Feb 2011144
Jan 2011149
Dec 2010134
Nov 2010146
Oct 2010150
Sept 2010149
Aug 2010151
Jul 2010153
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010138
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009183
Jun 2009175
May 2009155
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009150
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009135
Dec 2008138
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008165
Sept 2008175
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008162
Jun 2008150
May 2008139
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008125
Feb 2008125
Jan 2008121
Dec 2007120
Nov 2007125
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007110
Feb 2007100
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-863-65-retail-kg.