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Millet in Bougouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

171–298

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

158–318

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 298 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Bougouni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 298 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 189–252 204 166–325 325 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 180–270 204 151–373 334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 171–298 204 134–403 333 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 161–316 201 132–473 303 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 158–318 200 123–465 285 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026212
May 2026227
Apr 2026245
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025258
Aug 2025295
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025297
Apr 2025298
Mar 2025294
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025294
Dec 2024328
Nov 2024411
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024374
Aug 2024356
Jul 2024310
Jun 2024285
May 2024250
Apr 2024254
Mar 2024253
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023259
Oct 2023279
Sept 2023280
Aug 2023270
Jul 2023243
Jun 2023257
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022325
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022430
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022384
Apr 2022331
Mar 2022310
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021237
Nov 2021215
Oct 2021210
Sept 2021203
Aug 2021201
Jul 2021201
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021195
Mar 2021194
Feb 2021194
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020213
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020213
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020175
May 2020194
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020187
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019193
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019165
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018237
Apr 2018206
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018206
Dec 2017237
Nov 2017270
Oct 2017318
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017206
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015206
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015205
Dec 2014207
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014245
Jul 2014242
Jun 2014248
May 2014250
Apr 2014250
Mar 2014250
Feb 2014250
Dec 2013250
Nov 2013244
Oct 2013250
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
Oct 2011190
Sept 2011185
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011176
May 2011175
Apr 2011173
Mar 2011170
Feb 2011171
Dec 2010170
Nov 2010174
Oct 2010173
Sept 2010174
Aug 2010181
Jul 2010181
Jun 2010166
May 2010175
Apr 2010169
Mar 2010150
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009183
Jun 2009175
May 2009155
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009150
Feb 2009150
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008225
Oct 2008206
Sept 2008191
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008162
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008138
Jan 2008130
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007150
May 2007135
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007125
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-863-73-retail-kg.