Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Bougouni

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,057–3,571

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,891–3,811

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,057 and 3,571 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,891 and 3,811 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bougouni: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,057 and 3,571 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,891 and 3,811 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,272–3,028 2,442 1,988–3,901
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,159–3,246 2,443 1,807–4,479
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,057–3,571 2,452 1,610–4,841
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,932–3,793 2,415 1,590–5,680
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,891–3,811 2,395 1,472–5,585
Cost history (206 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,400
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,544
May 20262,724
Apr 20262,940
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,000
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,096
Aug 20253,540
Jul 20253,600
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,564
Apr 20253,576
Mar 20253,528
Feb 20253,600
Jan 20253,528
Dec 20243,936
Nov 20244,932
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,488
Aug 20244,272
Jul 20243,720
Jun 20243,420
May 20243,000
Apr 20243,048
Mar 20243,036
Jan 20243,000
Nov 20233,108
Oct 20233,348
Sept 20233,360
Aug 20233,240
Jul 20232,916
Jun 20233,084
May 20233,600
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,600
Feb 20233,600
Dec 20223,900
Nov 20225,100
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,160
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,608
Apr 20223,972
Mar 20223,720
Feb 20223,300
Jan 20223,000
Dec 20212,844
Nov 20212,580
Oct 20212,520
Sept 20212,436
Aug 20212,412
Jul 20212,412
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,340
Mar 20212,328
Feb 20212,328
Jan 20212,256
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,556
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,000
Aug 20202,556
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,100
May 20202,328
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,244
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,316
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,100
Sept 20192,100
Aug 20191,980
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,400
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20182,700
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20182,844
Apr 20182,472
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20182,472
Dec 20172,844
Nov 20173,240
Oct 20173,816
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20172,700
Jul 20172,475
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,472
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,100
Jan 20152,460
Dec 20142,484
Nov 20143,000
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20142,940
Jul 20142,904
Jun 20142,976
May 20143,000
Apr 20143,000
Mar 20143,000
Feb 20143,000
Dec 20133,000
Nov 20132,928
Oct 20133,000
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Sept 20123,600
Aug 20123,600
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
Oct 20112,286
Sept 20112,220
Aug 20112,394
Jul 20112,394
Jun 20112,112
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,076
Mar 20112,035
Feb 20112,055
Dec 20102,035
Nov 20102,085
Oct 20102,076
Sept 20102,088
Aug 20102,175
Jul 20102,172
Jun 20101,995
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,028
Mar 20101,800
Aug 20092,400
Jul 20092,196
Jun 20092,100
May 20091,860
Apr 20091,800
Mar 20091,800
Feb 20091,800
Dec 20082,100
Nov 20082,700
Oct 20082,472
Sept 20082,295
Aug 20082,100
Jul 20082,100
Jun 20081,950
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,650
Jan 20081,560
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,800
May 20071,620
Apr 20071,500
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,500
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189