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Rice (imported) in Diallassagou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 7 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

444–582

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

430–624

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 444 and 582 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 430 and 624 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Diallassagou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 444 and 582 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 430 and 624 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 469–549 516 424–605 560 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 459–568 516 383–635 566 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 444–582 515 348–645 559 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 438–603 510 390–756 551 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 430–624 504 354–749 600 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026520
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026490
Dec 2025485
Oct 2025504
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025490
May 2025563
Apr 2025630
Mar 2025638
Feb 2025615
Jan 2025638
Dec 2024638
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024592
Jun 2024580
May 2024505
Apr 2024512
Mar 2024570
Feb 2024500
Jan 2024551
Dec 2023450
Nov 2023525
Oct 2023460
Sept 2023465
Aug 2023499
Jul 2023532
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023480
Feb 2023550
Jan 2023586
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022435
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021391
Nov 2021407
Oct 2021395
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021357
Jul 2021357
Jun 2021384
May 2021393
Apr 2021357
Mar 2021357
Feb 2021357
Jan 2021357
Dec 2020357
Nov 2020356
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020383
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020397
Feb 2020375
Dec 2019375
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019350
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018380
Jun 2018387
May 2018387
Apr 2018360
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017400
May 2017394
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016375
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015375
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015388
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014365
Nov 2014360
Oct 2014360
Sept 2014360
Aug 2014360
Jul 2014360
Jun 2014360
May 2014360
Apr 2014360
Mar 2014360
Feb 2014360
Jan 2014360
Dec 2013360
Nov 2013360
Oct 2013360
Sept 2013360
Aug 2013370
Jul 2013372
Sept 2012375
Aug 2012375
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012394
Oct 2011360
Sept 2011350
Aug 2011350
Jul 2011350
Jun 2011350
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011354
Dec 2010370
Nov 2010370
Oct 2010370
Sept 2010370
Aug 2010370
Jul 2010370
Jun 2010370
May 2010370
Apr 2010370
Feb 2010380
Jan 2010380
Dec 2009380
Nov 2009380
Oct 2009380
Sept 2009380
Aug 2009380
Jul 2009380
Jun 2009380
May 2009380
Apr 2009380
Mar 2009380
Feb 2009380
Jan 2009380
Dec 2008380
Nov 2008380
Oct 2008390
Sept 2008390
Aug 2008376
Jul 2008335
Jun 2008335
May 2008332
Apr 2008318
Mar 2008300
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007300
Jan 2007300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-865-64-retail-kg.