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Food basket in Diallassagou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,654–3,751

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,641–4,156

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,654 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,641 and 4,156 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Diallassagou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,654 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,641 and 4,156 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,666); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,055–3,358 2,754 1,732–3,547
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,932–3,611 2,691 1,903–5,124
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,654–3,751 2,333 1,104–5,843
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,641–3,964 2,256 1,462–6,666
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,641–4,156 2,237 1,290–6,453
Cost history (210 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20262,220
Jun 20262,076
May 20261,920
Apr 20261,800
Mar 20262,160
Feb 20262,160
Jan 20262,160
Dec 20252,460
Oct 20252,160
Sept 20252,352
Aug 20252,496
Jul 20252,760
Jun 20252,580
May 20252,700
Apr 20252,940
Mar 20253,096
Feb 20253,300
Jan 20253,096
Dec 20242,592
Oct 20243,852
Sept 20243,768
Aug 20243,852
Jul 20244,044
Jun 20243,216
May 20242,940
Apr 20242,880
Mar 20242,856
Feb 20242,328
Jan 20242,280
Dec 20232,160
Nov 20232,400
Oct 20232,544
Sept 20232,496
Aug 20232,520
Jul 20232,538
Jun 20233,156
May 20233,300
Apr 20233,276
Mar 20232,820
Feb 20232,586
Jan 20232,700
Dec 20222,820
Nov 20222,346
Oct 20223,840
Sept 20224,380
Aug 20224,032
Jul 20223,888
Jun 20223,816
May 20223,780
Apr 20223,660
Mar 20223,240
Feb 20223,096
Jan 20222,592
Dec 20212,460
Nov 20212,184
Oct 20211,956
Sept 20211,920
Aug 20211,884
Jul 20211,860
Jun 20211,908
May 20212,028
Apr 20212,100
Mar 20211,992
Feb 20211,800
Jan 20211,740
Dec 20201,680
Nov 20201,920
Oct 20201,776
Sept 20201,680
Aug 20201,944
Jul 20201,788
Jun 20201,632
May 20201,644
Apr 20201,512
Mar 20201,440
Feb 20201,404
Jan 20201,380
Dec 20191,440
Sept 20191,440
Aug 20191,560
Jul 20191,800
May 20192,580
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20191,800
Nov 20181,800
Oct 20182,040
Sept 20182,700
Aug 20182,520
Jul 20182,448
Jun 20182,484
May 20182,496
Apr 20182,412
Mar 20182,436
Feb 20182,472
Jan 20182,280
Dec 20171,992
Nov 20172,136
Oct 20172,328
Sept 20172,484
Aug 20172,460
Jul 20172,304
Jun 20172,220
May 20172,232
Apr 20172,112
Mar 20172,076
Feb 20171,932
Jan 20171,824
Dec 20161,728
Nov 20161,932
Oct 20161,920
Sept 20161,920
Aug 20161,860
Jul 20161,908
Jun 20161,920
May 20161,872
Apr 20161,860
Mar 20161,836
Feb 20161,752
Jan 20161,620
Dec 20151,620
Nov 20151,692
Oct 20151,740
Aug 20151,752
Jul 20151,908
Jun 20151,968
May 20151,848
Apr 20151,740
Mar 20151,800
Feb 20151,836
Jan 20151,644
Dec 20141,776
Nov 20141,824
Oct 20141,800
Sept 20141,764
Aug 20141,710
Jul 20141,980
Jun 20141,920
May 20141,920
Apr 20141,776
Mar 20141,776
Feb 20141,908
Jan 20141,836
Dec 20131,800
Nov 20131,980
Oct 20131,680
Sept 20131,680
Aug 20131,860
Jul 20132,052
Sept 20122,340
Aug 20122,460
Jul 20123,036
Jun 20122,976
Oct 20111,644
Sept 20111,180
Aug 20111,344
Jul 20111,440
Jun 20111,380
May 20111,404
Apr 20111,380
Mar 20111,380
Feb 20111,420
Jan 20111,284
Dec 20101,215
Nov 20101,092
Oct 20101,272
Sept 20101,350
Aug 20101,572
Jul 20101,680
Jun 20101,620
May 20101,560
Apr 20101,620
Feb 20101,605
Jan 20101,560
Dec 20091,440
Nov 20091,416
Oct 20091,392
Sept 20091,580
Aug 20091,980
Jul 20091,845
Jun 20091,692
May 20091,600
Apr 20091,560
Mar 20091,560
Feb 20091,590
Jan 20091,485
Dec 20081,260
Nov 2008990
Oct 20081,200
Sept 20081,416
Aug 20081,590
Jul 20081,620
Jun 20081,476
May 20081,395
Apr 20081,215
Mar 20081,220
Feb 20081,260
Jan 20081,140
Dec 2007996
Nov 2007980
Oct 2007915
Sept 2007975
Aug 20071,065
Jul 20071,110
Jun 20071,080
May 20071,040
Apr 20071,040
Mar 20071,080
Feb 20071,140
Jan 2007930

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189