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Maize in Dibida

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–252

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–305

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dibida: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 514); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 184–233 200 169–239 315 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 175–247 199 160–284 309 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–252 197 157–305 301 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–284 192 141–507 271 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–305 196 130–514 279 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jun 2026213
May 2026225
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025210
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025290
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025288
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024280
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024280
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023275
Jun 2023275
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022313
Aug 2022325
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022310
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022275
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021225
May 2021225
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021210
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020169
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020156
Jul 2020163
Jun 2020175
May 2020181
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020170
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019155
Nov 2019156
Oct 2019165
Sept 2019181
Aug 2019181
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019175
May 2019162
Apr 2019155
Mar 2019162
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019193
Dec 2018156
Nov 2018194
Oct 2018210
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018220
Jun 2018212
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018187
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017181
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017185
Apr 2017188
Mar 2017188
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017170
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016170
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016188
Jun 2016194
May 2016185
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016163
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015163
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015175
May 2015175
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015156
Jan 2015167
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014183
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014176
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013176
Oct 2013180
Sept 2013192
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Jun 2013175
May 2013194
Apr 2013181
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013196
Jan 2013185
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012237
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012255
Jun 2012250
May 2012250
Apr 2012244
Mar 2012238
Feb 2012225
Jan 2012225
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011190
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010156
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010195
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009181
Oct 2009185
Sept 2009205
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009183
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008162
Oct 2008191
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008169
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007135
Jan 2007128

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-866-51-retail-kg.