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Rice (local) in Diéma

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

461–538

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

442–599

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 442 and 599 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Diéma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 538 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 442 and 599 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 813); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 479–521 498 464–548 570 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 473–529 498 434–559 557 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 461–538 498 379–585 567 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 451–571 496 372–714 570 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 442–599 490 382–813 558 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024538
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022600
Nov 2022600
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022463
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021438
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019433
Apr 2019500
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018425
Apr 2018412
Mar 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015438
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Dec 2014383
Nov 2014367
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Jan 2014400
Dec 2013400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013400
Sept 2012475
Aug 2012475
Jul 2012475
Jun 2012475
Oct 2011444
Sept 2011425
Aug 2011425
Jul 2011412
Jun 2011375
May 2011375
Apr 2011375
Mar 2011375
Feb 2011375
Jan 2011375
Dec 2010375
Nov 2010375
Oct 2010375
Sept 2010375
Aug 2010375
Jul 2010375
Jun 2010375
May 2010375
Apr 2010375
Mar 2010375
Feb 2010375
Jan 2010375
Dec 2009350
Oct 2009375
Sept 2009375
Aug 2009375
Jul 2009375
Jun 2009375
May 2009375
Apr 2009375
Mar 2009400
Feb 2009400
Jan 2009400
Dec 2008400
Nov 2008400
Sept 2008425
Aug 2008412
Jul 2008425
Jun 2008400
May 2008369
Apr 2008375
Mar 2008362
Feb 2008350
Jan 2008350
Dec 2007350
Nov 2007350
Oct 2007350
Sept 2007350
Aug 2007350
Jul 2007350
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007300
Jan 2007300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-867-71-retail-kg.