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Maize in Dioïla

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

110–166

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

110–187

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 110 and 166 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 110 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Dioïla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 110 and 166 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 110 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 140–166 150 128–177 244 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 123–167 147 111–188 218 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 110–166 133 89.2–181 196 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 108–174 134 85.7–208 197 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 110–187 136 88.1–242 200 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026150
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026150
Dec 2025150
Oct 2025181
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025205
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025200
Mar 2025200
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024180
Oct 2024231
Sept 2024275
Aug 2024275
Jul 2024269
Jun 2024205
May 2024188
Apr 2024175
Mar 2024175
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023156
Oct 2023181
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023225
Jul 2023215
Jun 2023213
May 2023213
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022238
Nov 2022213
Oct 2022275
Sept 2022356
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022325
May 2022288
Apr 2022275
Mar 2022256
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022216
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021181
Oct 2021190
Sept 2021213
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021185
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021143
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020145
Sept 2020125
Aug 2020125
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020121
Dec 2019100
Nov 2019100
Oct 2019100
Sept 2019100
Aug 2019110
Jul 2019110
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019115
Feb 2019110
Jan 2019125
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018150
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018175
May 2018175
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018156
Feb 2018150
Jan 2018150
Dec 2017133
Nov 2017125
Oct 2017137
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017151
May 2017144
Apr 2017130
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017121
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016145
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016145
Apr 2016125
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015125
Oct 2015139
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015140
Jun 2015140
May 2015131
Apr 2015110
Mar 2015100
Feb 2015100
Jan 2015100
Dec 2014100
Nov 2014103
Oct 2014120
Sept 2014125
Aug 2014116
Jul 2014120
Jun 2014125
May 2014125
Apr 2014125
Mar 2014125
Feb 2014125
Jan 2014125
Dec 2013135
Nov 2013124
Oct 2013136
Sept 2013140
Aug 2013140
Jul 2013142
Sept 2012220
Aug 2012224
Jul 2012226
Jun 2012225
Oct 2011152
Sept 2011157
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011139
May 2011130
Apr 2011135
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010119
Nov 2010118
Oct 2010129
Sept 2010140
Aug 2010148
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010125
Jan 2010128
Dec 2009120
Nov 2009100
Oct 2009110
Aug 2009155
Jul 2009153
Jun 2009150
May 2009135
Apr 2009133
Mar 2009136
Feb 2009138
Jan 2009128
Dec 2008104
Nov 200894
Oct 2008112
Sept 2008148
Aug 2008149
Jul 2008153
Jun 2008140
May 2008120
Apr 2008110
Mar 2008103
Feb 2008106
Jan 2008100
Dec 200796
Nov 2007100
Oct 2007102
Sept 2007104
Aug 2007100
Jul 200798
Jun 200784.6
May 200783.8
Apr 200781
Mar 200783.4
Feb 200782.5
Jan 200775.5

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-868-51-retail-kg.