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Sorghum in Dioïla

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

120–191

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

108–214

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 120 and 191 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dioïla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 120 and 191 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 144–172 152 133–189 252 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 130–182 151 115–214 238 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 120–191 149 102–260 231 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 114–201 139 108–301 205 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 108–214 137 85.2–305 199 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026150
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026150
Dec 2025150
Oct 2025188
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025205
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025213
Mar 2025219
Jan 2025219
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024319
Sept 2024306
Aug 2024325
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024245
May 2024225
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024200
Nov 2023200
Oct 2023213
Sept 2023245
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023235
Jun 2023213
May 2023213
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022238
Nov 2022288
Oct 2022360
Sept 2022381
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022365
Jun 2022331
May 2022300
Apr 2022295
Mar 2022266
Feb 2022255
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021181
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021150
Jun 2021150
May 2021150
Apr 2021150
Mar 2021150
Feb 2021125
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020156
Oct 2020155
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020143
Jun 2020140
May 2020134
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020121
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019125
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019148
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019120
Feb 2019115
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018142
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018210
May 2018218
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017168
Oct 2017187
Sept 2017190
Aug 2017175
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017148
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016140
Mar 2016138
Feb 2016135
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015125
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015165
Jun 2015161
May 2015150
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015130
Feb 2015128
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014129
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014150
Aug 2014146
Jul 2014150
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014147
Mar 2014150
Feb 2014150
Jan 2014136
Dec 2013135
Nov 2013138
Oct 2013147
Sept 2013150
Aug 2013150
Jul 2013150
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012248
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
Oct 2011177
Sept 2011164
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011139
May 2011130
Apr 2011135
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011125
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010121
Nov 2010118
Oct 2010130
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010150
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010125
Jan 2010128
Dec 2009120
Nov 2009100
Oct 2009132
Aug 2009169
Jul 2009160
Jun 2009150
May 2009135
Apr 2009128
Mar 2009128
Feb 2009132
Jan 2009122
Dec 200893.8
Nov 200891
Oct 2008112
Sept 2008144
Aug 2008137
Jul 2008140
Jun 2008128
May 2008112
Apr 2008100
Mar 2008100
Feb 2008106
Jan 2008100
Dec 200792
Nov 2007103
Oct 2007112
Sept 2007115
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007110
Jun 200793
May 200785
Apr 200786
Mar 200792.8
Feb 200799.2
Jan 200788.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-868-65-retail-kg.