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Rice (local) in Dioïla

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

421–501

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

414–536

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 421 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dioïla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 421 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 451–503 479 434–528 527 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 438–510 478 423–555 511 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 421–501 470 412–551 490 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 423–529 469 408–646 501 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 414–536 463 383–642 501 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026482
Jul 2026484
Jun 2026479
May 2026482
Apr 2026456
Mar 2026481
Feb 2026481
Jan 2026475
Dec 2025503
Oct 2025513
Sept 2025525
Aug 2025515
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024485
Oct 2024528
Sept 2024528
Aug 2024525
Jul 2024506
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024494
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023413
Oct 2023447
Sept 2023483
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023475
Jun 2023475
May 2023475
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022508
Sept 2022503
Aug 2022463
Jul 2022433
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022413
Mar 2022388
Feb 2022388
Jan 2022388
Dec 2021384
Nov 2021388
Oct 2021388
Sept 2021388
Aug 2021384
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021369
Feb 2021363
Dec 2020356
Nov 2020363
Oct 2020373
Sept 2020372
Aug 2020363
Jul 2020362
Jun 2020353
May 2020363
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019387
Jan 2019381
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018381
Oct 2018418
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018440
May 2018425
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018393
Dec 2017390
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017385
Jun 2017375
May 2017400
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016356
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016369
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016363
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015358
Oct 2015388
Aug 2015406
Jul 2015375
Jun 2015375
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014353
Oct 2014382
Sept 2014375
Aug 2014353
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014366
May 2014368
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014355
Feb 2014371
Jan 2014368
Dec 2013353
Nov 2013371
Oct 2013374
Sept 2013375
Aug 2013375
Jul 2013375
Sept 2012425
Aug 2012411
Jul 2012409
Jun 2012437
Oct 2011390
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011386
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011372
May 2011369
Apr 2011342
Mar 2011312
Feb 2011319
Jan 2011316
Dec 2010320
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010329
May 2010325
Apr 2010350
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009319
Nov 2009312
Oct 2009338
Aug 2009369
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009350
May 2009350
Apr 2009344
Mar 2009350
Feb 2009350
Jan 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008340
Oct 2008388
Sept 2008402
Aug 2008385
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008369
May 2008350
Apr 2008331
Mar 2008315
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007261
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007295
Aug 2007299
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007270

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-868-71-retail-kg.