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Millet in Dioïla

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–318

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

152–287

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dioïla: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 196–271 223 193–316 297 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 187–293 221 181–376 291 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–318 215 170–467 286 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 156–312 197 127–457 244 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 152–287 196 112–291 242 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026192
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025198
Oct 2025238
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025265
Apr 2025294
Mar 2025269
Jan 2025269
Dec 2024256
Nov 2024305
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024356
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024331
Jun 2024255
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023231
Oct 2023244
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023245
Jun 2023244
May 2023269
Apr 2023295
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022344
Oct 2022405
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022363
May 2022350
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022284
Feb 2022258
Jan 2022235
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021148
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020190
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020155
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019172
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019135
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018155
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018218
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017185
Nov 2017243
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017240
Aug 2017221
Jul 2017205
Jun 2017211
May 2017200
Apr 2017195
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017153
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016181
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016168
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015181
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015195
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015170
Jan 2015170
Dec 2014168
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014197
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013165
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012315
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011160
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011138
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010129
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010140
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010169
Jul 2010170
Jun 2010150
May 2010150
Apr 2010128
Jan 2010129
Dec 2009140
Nov 2009125
Oct 2009164
Aug 2009174
Jul 2009160
Jun 2009150
May 2009137
Apr 2009130
Mar 2009130
Feb 2009133
Jan 2009121
Dec 2008104
Nov 2008147
Oct 2008138
Sept 2008152
Aug 2008150
Jul 2008154
Jun 2008138
May 2008119
Apr 2008110
Mar 2008103
Feb 2008105
Jan 2008101
Dec 2007106
Nov 2007110
Oct 2007114
Sept 2007117
Aug 2007112
Jul 2007110
Jun 2007100
May 200796.8
Apr 200795
Mar 200798.4
Feb 200799
Jan 200792.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-868-73-retail-kg.