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Food basket in Dioïla

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,158–3,816

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,827–3,442

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,158 and 3,816 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,827 and 3,442 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Dioïla: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,158 and 3,816 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,827 and 3,442 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,353–3,254 2,674 2,316–3,797
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,242–3,515 2,654 2,167–4,509
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,158–3,816 2,583 2,042–5,604
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,875–3,745 2,368 1,525–5,481
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,827–3,442 2,355 1,339–3,497
Cost history (211 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,700
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,400
May 20262,400
Apr 20262,310
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,400
Jan 20262,400
Dec 20252,370
Oct 20252,856
Sept 20253,000
Aug 20253,000
Jul 20253,000
Jun 20253,000
May 20253,180
Apr 20253,528
Mar 20253,228
Jan 20253,228
Dec 20243,072
Nov 20243,660
Oct 20244,500
Sept 20244,272
Aug 20244,200
Jul 20243,972
Jun 20243,060
May 20243,000
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20243,000
Jan 20242,700
Nov 20232,772
Oct 20232,928
Sept 20233,000
Aug 20233,000
Jul 20232,940
Jun 20232,928
May 20233,228
Apr 20233,540
Mar 20233,600
Feb 20233,600
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20224,128
Oct 20224,860
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,500
Jul 20224,500
Jun 20224,356
May 20224,200
Apr 20224,080
Mar 20223,408
Feb 20223,096
Jan 20222,820
Dec 20212,700
Nov 20212,328
Oct 20212,100
Sept 20212,100
Aug 20212,100
Jul 20212,100
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,100
Apr 20212,100
Mar 20212,100
Feb 20211,956
Jan 20211,776
Dec 20201,800
Nov 20202,256
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,280
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20202,100
May 20201,860
Apr 20201,800
Mar 20201,800
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,800
Dec 20191,500
Nov 20191,800
Oct 20191,800
Sept 20191,800
Aug 20191,800
Jul 20191,800
Jun 20192,064
May 20192,100
Apr 20192,100
Mar 20191,800
Feb 20191,620
Jan 20192,100
Dec 20181,860
Nov 20182,700
Oct 20182,400
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,700
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,616
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20182,244
Dec 20172,220
Nov 20172,916
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20172,880
Aug 20172,652
Jul 20172,460
Jun 20172,532
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,340
Mar 20172,100
Feb 20172,100
Jan 20171,836
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,100
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,172
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,100
Mar 20162,100
Feb 20162,016
Jan 20161,872
Dec 20152,172
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,340
Apr 20152,100
Mar 20152,100
Feb 20152,040
Jan 20152,040
Dec 20142,016
Nov 20142,400
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,400
Jul 20142,400
Jun 20142,400
May 20142,400
Apr 20142,400
Mar 20142,400
Feb 20142,364
Jan 20142,100
Dec 20131,980
Nov 20132,400
Oct 20132,400
Sept 20132,400
Aug 20132,400
Jul 20132,400
Sept 20123,600
Aug 20123,780
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
Oct 20112,100
Sept 20111,923
Aug 20111,800
Jul 20111,800
Jun 20111,800
May 20111,800
Apr 20111,800
Mar 20111,800
Feb 20111,650
Jan 20111,560
Dec 20101,545
Nov 20101,800
Oct 20101,680
Sept 20101,800
Aug 20102,025
Jul 20102,040
Jun 20101,800
May 20101,800
Apr 20101,530
Jan 20101,550
Dec 20091,680
Nov 20091,500
Oct 20091,974
Aug 20092,085
Jul 20091,920
Jun 20091,800
May 20091,644
Apr 20091,560
Mar 20091,560
Feb 20091,596
Jan 20091,452
Dec 20081,242
Nov 20081,764
Oct 20081,650
Sept 20081,827
Aug 20081,800
Jul 20081,845
Jun 20081,656
May 20081,426
Apr 20081,320
Mar 20081,231
Feb 20081,260
Jan 20081,215
Dec 20071,269
Nov 20071,320
Oct 20071,365
Sept 20071,399
Aug 20071,350
Jul 20071,320
Jun 20071,200
May 20071,161
Apr 20071,140
Mar 20071,181
Feb 20071,188
Jan 20071,113

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189