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Sorghum in Dioro

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

151–252

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

142–273

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 151 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 151 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 185–227 202 162–269 287 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 176–240 202 145–314 293 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 151–252 192 105–341 255 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 138–267 177 102–432 226 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 142–273 183 105–361 238 –
Price history (207 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025175
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025213
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025245
Apr 2025263
Mar 2025255
Feb 2025273
Jan 2025255
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024356
Jun 2024300
May 2024275
Apr 2024275
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024231
Nov 2023238
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023231
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022263
Oct 2022355
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022365
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022281
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021215
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021169
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020169
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020188
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020161
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019125
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019320Data error
Mar 2019135
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017206
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017181
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015156
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014144
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014169
Dec 2013137
Nov 2013150
Oct 2013169
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012267
Jul 2012269
Jun 2012270
Oct 2011120
Sept 2011116
Aug 2011121
Jul 2011120
Jun 2011120
May 2011121
Apr 2011115
Mar 2011119
Feb 2011118
Jan 2011104
Dec 201090
Nov 201096.2
Oct 2010107
Jun 2010127
May 2010128
Apr 2010126
Mar 2010128
Feb 2010125
Jan 2010115
Dec 200997.5
Nov 2009109
Oct 2009150
Sept 2009155
Aug 2009151
Jul 2009140
Jun 2009134
May 2009124
Apr 2009118
Mar 2009125
Feb 2009125
Jan 2009107
Dec 200882.5
Nov 2008100
Oct 2008150
Aug 2008130
Jul 2008140
Jun 2008125
May 2008125
Apr 2008125
Mar 2008124
Feb 2008101
Jan 200889.4
Dec 200782.8
Nov 200788.3
Oct 200781.2
Sept 200790
Aug 200787.5
Jul 200780
Jun 200775
May 200773.3
Apr 200775
Mar 200780
Feb 200778.8
Jan 200773.1

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-869-65-retail-kg.