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Rice (local) in Dioro

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

331–443

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

311–435

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 331 and 443 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 311 and 435 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 331 and 443 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 311 and 435 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 348–417 365 340–440 484 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 342–430 366 331–468 477 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 331–443 363 295–549 457 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 319–451 359 299–552 433 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 311–435 354 278–464 428 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026365
Jul 2026362
Jun 2026388
May 2026375
Apr 2026388
Mar 2026388
Feb 2026388
Jan 2026375
Dec 2025375
Oct 2025394
Sept 2025438
Aug 2025440
Jun 2025413
May 2025418
Apr 2025431
Mar 2025425
Feb 2025472
Jan 2025425
Dec 2024425
Nov 2024440
Oct 2024547
Sept 2024556
Aug 2024516
Jul 2024466
Jun 2024438
May 2024450
Apr 2024468
Mar 2024441
Jan 2024428
Nov 2023416
Oct 2023438
Sept 2023453
Aug 2023459
Jul 2023420
Jun 2023400
May 2023456
Apr 2023443
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022430
Nov 2022428
Oct 2022460
Sept 2022463
Aug 2022422
Jul 2022413
Jun 2022400
May 2022388
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022363
Feb 2022366
Jan 2022374
Dec 2021378
Nov 2021378
Oct 2021388
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021367
Jul 2021363
Jun 2021359
May 2021358
Apr 2021342
Mar 2021338
Feb 2021338
Jan 2021310
Dec 2020313
Nov 2020330
Oct 2020350
Sept 2020341
Aug 2020340
Jul 2020300
Jun 2020323
May 2020330
Apr 2020321
Mar 2020312
Feb 2020312
Jan 2020309
Dec 2019300
Nov 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019350
Apr 2019320
Mar 2019320
Dec 2018330
Oct 2018350
Aug 2018368
Jul 2018362
Jun 2018362
May 2018356
Apr 2018337
Mar 2018341
Feb 2018337
Jan 2018337
Dec 2017337
Nov 2017343
Oct 2017356
Sept 2017352
Aug 2017340
Jul 2017338
Jun 2017338
May 2017331
Apr 2017310
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017306
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016325
Oct 2016329
Sept 2016329
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016322
May 2016313
Apr 2016300
Mar 2016300
Feb 2016300
Jan 2016306
Dec 2015313
Nov 2015367
Oct 2015375
May 2015312
Apr 2015288
Mar 2015288
Feb 2015288
Jan 2015308
Dec 2014313
Nov 2014313
Oct 2014313
Sept 2014313
Aug 2014282
Jul 2014288
Jun 2014288
May 2014288
Apr 2014275
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014281
Jan 2014306
Dec 2013305
Nov 2013311
Oct 2013300
Sept 2013300
Aug 2013300
Jul 2013300
Sept 2012313
Aug 2012353
Jul 2012359
Jun 2012383
Oct 2011346
Sept 2011334
Aug 2011298
Jul 2011288
Jun 2011281
May 2011270
Apr 2011257
Mar 2011234
Feb 2011232
Jan 2011236
Dec 2010235
Nov 2010242
Oct 2010250
Sept 2010249
Aug 2010249
Jul 2010250
Jun 2010255
May 2010252
Apr 2010250
Mar 2010252
Feb 2010256
Jan 2010246
Dec 2009238
Nov 2009236
Oct 2009262
Sept 2009303
Aug 2009316
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009293
May 2009288
Apr 2009284
Mar 2009279
Feb 2009272
Jan 2009280
Dec 2008287
Nov 2008304
Oct 2008352
Sept 2008350
Aug 2008336
Jul 2008320
Jun 2008300
May 2008295
Apr 2008278
Mar 2008258
Feb 2008240
Jan 2008235
Dec 2007237
Nov 2007238
Oct 2007222
Sept 2007228
Aug 2007230
Jul 2007238
Jun 2007228
May 2007223
Apr 2007208
Mar 2007199
Feb 2007204
Jan 2007210

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-869-71-retail-kg.