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Millet in Dioro

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

140–237

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

127–251

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 237 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Dioro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 237 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 476); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 163–208 173 148–263 268 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 151–227 172 140–300 278 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 140–237 169 118–341 247 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 116–259 153 82–476 199 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 127–251 165 95.6–328 231 –
Price history (187 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026172
Jul 2026175
Jun 2026175
May 2026180
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025213
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025245
Apr 2025256
Mar 2025255
Feb 2025274
Jan 2025255
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024363
Jul 2024338
Jun 2024280
May 2024250
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024213
Nov 2023225
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023225
Jul 2023205
Jun 2023200
May 2023225
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Oct 2022365
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022340
Jun 2022325
May 2022325
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022281
Feb 2022275
Jan 2022240
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021163
Jan 2021150
Oct 2020190
Sept 2020188
Aug 2020190
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020158
May 2020148
Apr 2020128
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019135
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018130
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018212
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018187
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017181
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016169
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Oct 2015175
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015156
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014156
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013158
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012275
Jun 2012268
Oct 2011113
Sept 2011109
Aug 2011116
Jul 2011115
Jun 2011115
May 2011115
Apr 2011110
Mar 2011114
Feb 2011112
Jan 2011104
Nov 201091.2
Oct 2010101
Sept 2010120
Aug 2010128
Jul 2010128
Jun 2010125
May 2010126
Apr 2010126
Mar 2010128
Feb 2010124
Jan 2010116
Dec 2009110
Oct 2009135
Sept 2009153
Aug 2009151
Jul 2009136
Jun 2009134
May 2009123
Apr 2009118
Mar 2009118
Feb 2009120
Jan 2009108
Oct 2008150
Sept 2008146
Aug 2008130
Jul 2008137
Jun 2008119
May 2008110
Apr 2008105
Mar 2008100
Feb 2008100
Jan 200890
Nov 200788.8
Oct 200782.5
Sept 200787.5
Aug 200787.5
Jul 200780
Jun 200775
May 200773.3
Apr 200775
Mar 200780
Feb 200778.8
Jan 200774.4

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-869-73-retail-kg.