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Food basket in Dioro

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,684–2,842

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,529–3,016

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,064 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,684 and 2,842 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,529 and 3,016 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Dioro: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,064 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,684 and 2,842 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,529 and 3,016 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,710); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,952–2,497 2,081 1,778–3,160
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,809–2,726 2,063 1,682–3,597
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,684–2,842 2,031 1,414–4,095
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,396–3,104 1,837 984–5,710
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,529–3,016 1,977 1,147–3,939
Cost history (187 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,064
Jul 20262,100
Jun 20262,100
May 20262,160
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,400
Jan 20262,400
Dec 20252,400
Oct 20252,400
Sept 20252,556
Aug 20252,880
Jul 20253,000
Jun 20253,000
May 20252,940
Apr 20253,072
Mar 20253,060
Feb 20253,288
Jan 20253,060
Sept 20244,200
Aug 20244,356
Jul 20244,056
Jun 20243,360
May 20243,000
Apr 20242,700
Mar 20242,700
Jan 20242,556
Nov 20232,700
Sept 20232,700
Aug 20232,700
Jul 20232,460
Jun 20232,400
May 20232,700
Apr 20233,000
Mar 20233,000
Feb 20233,000
Oct 20224,380
Sept 20224,500
Aug 20224,500
Jul 20224,080
Jun 20223,900
May 20223,900
Apr 20223,960
Mar 20223,372
Feb 20223,300
Jan 20222,880
Sept 20212,100
Aug 20212,100
Jul 20212,100
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,100
Apr 20212,100
Mar 20212,100
Feb 20211,956
Jan 20211,800
Oct 20202,280
Sept 20202,256
Aug 20202,280
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20201,896
May 20201,776
Apr 20201,536
Mar 20201,500
Feb 20201,500
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,500
Sept 20191,800
Aug 20191,800
Jul 20191,800
Jun 20191,800
May 20191,800
Apr 20191,500
Mar 20191,620
Jan 20192,100
Dec 20181,560
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,400
Sept 20182,400
Aug 20182,700
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,700
May 20182,544
Apr 20182,400
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,400
Jan 20182,244
Sept 20172,700
Aug 20172,400
Jul 20172,400
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,172
Apr 20172,100
Mar 20172,100
Feb 20171,800
Jan 20171,800
Dec 20162,028
Sept 20161,800
Aug 20161,800
Jul 20161,872
Jun 20161,800
May 20161,800
Apr 20161,800
Mar 20161,800
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,800
Oct 20152,100
Aug 20152,100
Jul 20152,100
Jun 20152,100
May 20151,872
Apr 20151,800
Mar 20151,800
Feb 20151,800
Jan 20151,800
Dec 20141,800
Nov 20141,872
Sept 20142,100
Aug 20142,100
Jul 20142,100
Jun 20142,100
May 20142,100
Apr 20142,100
Mar 20142,100
Feb 20142,100
Jan 20142,100
Dec 20131,896
Oct 20132,100
Sept 20132,100
Aug 20132,100
Jul 20132,100
Sept 20123,000
Aug 20123,300
Jul 20123,300
Jun 20123,216
Oct 20111,356
Sept 20111,305
Aug 20111,395
Jul 20111,380
Jun 20111,380
May 20111,380
Apr 20111,320
Mar 20111,365
Feb 20111,350
Jan 20111,248
Nov 20101,095
Oct 20101,212
Sept 20101,440
Aug 20101,530
Jul 20101,530
Jun 20101,500
May 20101,512
Apr 20101,515
Mar 20101,530
Feb 20101,485
Jan 20101,390
Dec 20091,320
Oct 20091,620
Sept 20091,840
Aug 20091,812
Jul 20091,635
Jun 20091,605
May 20091,476
Apr 20091,410
Mar 20091,410
Feb 20091,440
Jan 20091,296
Oct 20081,800
Sept 20081,755
Aug 20081,560
Jul 20081,640
Jun 20081,425
May 20081,320
Apr 20081,260
Mar 20081,200
Feb 20081,200
Jan 20081,080
Nov 20071,065
Oct 2007990
Sept 20071,050
Aug 20071,050
Jul 2007960
Jun 2007900
May 2007880
Apr 2007900
Mar 2007960
Feb 2007945
Jan 2007893

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189