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Maize in Diré

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–345

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

202–404

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 202 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Diré: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 202 and 404 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 699); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 227–321 257 197–363 374 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 214–334 257 175–413 378 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–345 255 170–472 361 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 200–388 254 176–699 349 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 202–404 255 185–648 348 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026257
Jul 2026345
Jun 2026258
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026297
Dec 2025275
Oct 2025313
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025273
Jun 2025313
May 2025313
Apr 2025363
Feb 2025394
Jan 2025438
Dec 2024438
Nov 2024438
Oct 2024438
Sept 2024438
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024313
Jun 2024313
May 2024313
Apr 2024313
Mar 2024313
Feb 2024250
Jan 2024313
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023439
Sept 2023375
Aug 2023375
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023356
May 2023366
Apr 2023364
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022422
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021225
May 2021200
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021257
Jan 2021257
Dec 2020229
Nov 2020257
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020225
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020215
Feb 2020212
Jan 2020237
Dec 2019225
Nov 2019244
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019225
Jun 2019225
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019225
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018243
Nov 2018244
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018243
May 2018225
Apr 2018243
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018231
Jan 2018213
Dec 2017268
Nov 2017218
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017285
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017206
May 2017220
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017225
Jan 2017225
Dec 2016225
Nov 2016225
Oct 2016225
Sept 2016231
Aug 2016225
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016225
Apr 2016225
Mar 2016225
Feb 2016225
Jan 2016225
Dec 2015225
Nov 2015238
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015206
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Jan 2015188
Dec 2014188
Nov 2014188
Oct 2014188
Sept 2014191
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014188
Feb 2014188
Jan 2014188
Nov 2011175
Oct 2011178
Sept 2011170
Aug 2011165
Jul 2011160
Jun 2011170
May 2011182
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010155
Sept 2010157
Aug 2010160
Jul 2010161
Jun 2010161
May 2010161
Apr 2010162
Mar 2010165
Feb 2010171
Jan 2010166
Dec 2009157
Nov 2009157
Oct 2009157
Sept 2009157
Aug 2009157
Jul 2009157
Jun 2009157
May 2009157
Apr 2009144
Mar 2009131
Feb 2009132
Jan 2009146
Dec 2008131
Nov 2008133
Oct 2008132
Sept 2008131
Aug 2008157
Jul 2008154
Jun 2008152
May 2008144
Apr 2008131
Mar 2008131
Feb 2008131
Nov 2007157
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007131
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007144
Jun 2007157
May 2007158
Mar 2007157
Feb 2007158
Jan 2007157

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-870-51-retail-kg.