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Sorghum in Diré

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

228–384

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

218–419

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 384 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 218 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Diré: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 228 and 384 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 218 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 648); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 261–332 285 215–403 399 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 245–353 286 184–488 402 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 228–384 287 155–575 406 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 218–404 283 163–648 381 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 218–419 283 184–598 379 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026281
Jul 2026295
Jun 2026270
May 2026313
Feb 2026275
Jan 2026313
Dec 2025282
Oct 2025313
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025307
Jul 2025325
Jun 2025375
May 2025344
Feb 2025375
Jan 2025391
Dec 2024438
Nov 2024438
Oct 2024438
Sept 2024438
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024313
May 2024313
Apr 2024375
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024258
Jan 2024313
Dec 2023295
Nov 2023344
Oct 2023382
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023438
Jul 2023394
Jun 2023416
May 2023340
Apr 2023356
Mar 2023406
Feb 2023385
Jan 2023396
Dec 2022430
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022412
Jul 2022438
Jun 2022391
May 2022330
Apr 2022313
Mar 2022302
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021257
Jan 2021257
Dec 2020266
Nov 2020257
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020225
May 2020200
Apr 2020225
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019244
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
Mar 2019243
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018255
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018282
Jun 2018268
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018205
Jan 2018240
Dec 2017231
Nov 2017243
Oct 2017245
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017245
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
Apr 2017255
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017225
Jan 2017225
Dec 2016231
Nov 2016225
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016225
Aug 2016231
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
Mar 2016245
Feb 2016231
Jan 2016225
Dec 2015225
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015225
Feb 2015225
Jan 2015225
Dec 2014238
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014231
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014188
Feb 2014250
Jan 2014229
Dec 2013188
Nov 2013188
Nov 2011188
Oct 2011188
Sept 2011188
Aug 2011188
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011188
May 2011176
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010158
Sept 2010160
Aug 2010160
Jul 2010160
Jun 2010160
Apr 2010160
Mar 2010160
Feb 2010160
Jan 2010160
Dec 2009160
Nov 2009160
Oct 2009160
Sept 2009160
Aug 2009160
Jul 2009160
Jun 2009160
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009160
Feb 2009160
Jan 2009180
Dec 2008156
Nov 2008153
Oct 2008166
Sept 2008173
Aug 2008173
Jul 2008169
Jun 2008163
Mar 2008160
Feb 2008146
Jan 2008133
Dec 2007133
Nov 2007143
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007160
Aug 2007160
Jul 2007160
Jun 2007160
May 2007160
Apr 2007160
Mar 2007160
Feb 2007151
Jan 2007160

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-870-65-retail-kg.