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Rice (local) in Diré

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

285–436

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

264–469

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 264 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Diré: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 436 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 264 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 306–386 326 280–458 457 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 300–403 328 270–425 457 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 285–436 326 252–557 419 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 279–448 320 275–671 395 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 264–469 316 230–692 398 –
Price history (205 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026326
Jul 2026328
Jun 2026318
May 2026300
Apr 2026307
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026325
Jan 2026338
Dec 2025338
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jul 2025232
Jun 2025400
May 2025400
Apr 2025400
Feb 2025400
Jan 2025388
Dec 2024365
Nov 2024425
Oct 2024570
Sept 2024444
Aug 2024425
Jul 2024350
Jun 2024350
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024406
Feb 2024322
Jan 2024425
Dec 2023349
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023441
Sept 2023443
Aug 2023430
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023425
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023448
Feb 2023434
Jan 2023390
Dec 2022454
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022419
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022335
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022335
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021306
Nov 2021330
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021344
Jul 2021300
Jun 2021300
May 2021300
Apr 2021291
Mar 2021300
Feb 2021263
Dec 2020318
Nov 2020275
Oct 2020300
Sept 2020284
Aug 2020256
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020275
May 2020275
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020245
Feb 2020231
Jan 2020243
Dec 2019240
Nov 2019238
Oct 2019280
Sept 2019300
Aug 2019300
Jul 2019295
Jun 2019275
May 2019275
Apr 2019125Data error
Mar 2019275
Feb 2019268
Jan 2019300
Dec 2018275
Nov 2018306
Oct 2018345
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018325
Jul 2018295
Jun 2018275
May 2018275
Apr 2018275
Mar 2018275
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017262
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017270
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017285
Jun 2017275
May 2017275
Apr 2017275
Mar 2017275
Feb 2017256
Jan 2017255
Dec 2016263
Nov 2016285
Oct 2016338
Sept 2016319
Aug 2016300
Jul 2016313
Jun 2016313
May 2016300
Apr 2016288
Mar 2016290
Feb 2016275
Jan 2016250
Dec 2015250
Nov 2015275
Oct 2015331
May 2015288
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015267
Feb 2015250
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014269
Nov 2014281
Oct 2014300
Sept 2014281
Aug 2014256
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250
May 2014250
Apr 2014249
Mar 2014238
Feb 2014238
Jan 2014240
Dec 2013237
Nov 2013235
Nov 2011350
Oct 2011350
Sept 2011300
Aug 2011296
Jul 2011278
Jun 2011275
May 2011270
Apr 2011265
Mar 2011256
Feb 2011240
Jan 2011240
Dec 2010240
Nov 2010240
Oct 2010240
Sept 2010240
Aug 2010245
Jul 2010253
Jun 2010255
May 2010258
Apr 2010260
Mar 2010261
Feb 2010258
Jan 2010250
Dec 2009250
Nov 2009250
Oct 2009266
Sept 2009285
Aug 2009282
Jul 2009285
Jun 2009274
May 2009268
Apr 2009265
Mar 2009267
Feb 2009265
Jan 2009265
Dec 2008244
Nov 2008246
Oct 2008300
Sept 2008362
Aug 2008355
Jul 2008318
Jun 2008289
May 2008272
Apr 2008270
Mar 2008254
Feb 2008248
Jan 2008219
Dec 2007212
Nov 2007225
Oct 2007228
Sept 2007225
Aug 2007225
Jul 2007228
Jun 2007238
May 2007225
Apr 2007215
Mar 2007214
Feb 2007205
Jan 2007189

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-870-71-retail-kg.