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Millet in Diré

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

283–425

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

261–454

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 283 and 425 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 261 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Diré: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 283 and 425 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 261 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 301–393 331 276–437 436 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 292–415 332 261–491 428 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 283–425 331 240–452 428 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 279–441 331 247–477 419 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 261–454 329 196–505 417 –
Price history (205 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026329
Jul 2026370
Jun 2026358
May 2026350
Apr 2026317
Mar 2026306
Feb 2026416
Jan 2026375
Dec 2025362
Oct 2025363
Sept 2025355
Aug 2025375
Jul 2025375
Jun 2025375
May 2025375
Apr 2025400
Feb 2025375
Jan 2025391
Dec 2024438
Nov 2024438
Oct 2024438
Sept 2024438
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024375
Jun 2024338
May 2024338
Apr 2024375
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024305
Jan 2024313
Dec 2023310
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023406
Sept 2023429
Aug 2023375
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023375
May 2023370
Apr 2023369
Mar 2023382
Feb 2023385
Jan 2023412
Dec 2022443
Nov 2022454
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022438
Aug 2022454
Jul 2022438
Jun 2022438
May 2022415
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022318
Feb 2022282
Jan 2022282
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021235
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021240
Jan 2021240
Dec 2020250
Nov 2020267
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020225
May 2020250
Apr 2020225
Mar 2020225
Feb 2020231
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019230
Nov 2019244
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019243
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018255
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018275
Jun 2018275
May 2018250
Apr 2018256
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017230
Oct 2017242
Sept 2017254
Aug 2017267
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017238
May 2017245
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017225
Jan 2017225
Dec 2016238
Nov 2016235
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016238
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016244
Jun 2016250
May 2016225
Apr 2016250
Mar 2016250
Feb 2016250
Jan 2016238
Dec 2015245
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015225
Feb 2015225
Dec 2014238
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014250
Jan 2014250
Dec 2013250
Nov 2013250
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011191
Sept 2011188
Aug 2011188
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011188
May 2011188
Apr 2011191
Mar 2011197
Feb 2011187
Jan 2011178
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010188
Oct 2010211
Sept 2010215
Aug 2010215
Jul 2010215
Jun 2010215
May 2010215
Apr 2010215
Mar 2010213
Feb 2010213
Dec 2009221
Nov 2009226
Oct 2009226
Sept 2009226
Aug 2009220
Jul 2009210
Jun 2009200
May 2009200
Apr 2009200
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009200
Dec 2008206
Nov 2008188
Oct 2008214
Sept 2008213
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008200
May 2008180
Apr 2008173
Mar 2008173
Feb 2008173
Dec 2007160
Nov 2007163
Oct 2007163
Sept 2007166
Aug 2007173
Jul 2007173
Jun 2007169
May 2007173
Apr 2007173
Mar 2007173
Feb 2007169

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-870-73-retail-kg.