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Food basket in Diré

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,396–5,105

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,138–5,443

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,945 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,396 and 5,105 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,138 and 5,443 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Diré: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,945 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,396 and 5,105 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,138 and 5,443 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,614–4,720 3,977 3,311–5,246
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,509–4,979 3,985 3,131–5,892
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,396–5,105 3,970 2,882–5,423
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,345–5,286 3,968 2,966–5,725
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,138–5,443 3,948 2,350–6,058
Cost history (205 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,945
Jul 20264,440
Jun 20264,296
May 20264,200
Apr 20263,804
Mar 20263,677
Feb 20264,997
Jan 20264,500
Dec 20254,350
Oct 20254,356
Sept 20254,260
Aug 20254,500
Jul 20254,500
Jun 20254,500
May 20254,500
Apr 20254,800
Feb 20254,500
Jan 20254,692
Dec 20245,256
Nov 20245,256
Oct 20245,256
Sept 20245,256
Aug 20245,256
Jul 20244,500
Jun 20244,056
May 20244,056
Apr 20244,500
Mar 20243,948
Feb 20243,660
Jan 20243,756
Dec 20233,720
Nov 20233,948
Oct 20234,872
Sept 20235,148
Aug 20234,500
Jul 20235,400
Jun 20234,500
May 20234,440
Apr 20234,428
Mar 20234,584
Feb 20234,616
Jan 20234,938
Dec 20225,316
Nov 20225,448
Oct 20225,256
Sept 20225,256
Aug 20225,448
Jul 20225,256
Jun 20225,256
May 20224,980
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,816
Feb 20223,384
Jan 20223,384
Dec 20213,000
Nov 20213,000
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20212,820
Jul 20213,000
Jun 20213,000
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,880
Jan 20212,880
Dec 20203,000
Nov 20203,204
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,760
Aug 20202,700
Jul 20202,700
Jun 20202,700
May 20203,000
Apr 20202,700
Mar 20202,700
Feb 20202,772
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20192,760
Nov 20192,925
Oct 20193,000
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,000
Apr 20193,000
Mar 20192,916
Feb 20192,700
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,060
Sept 20183,300
Aug 20182,700
Jul 20183,300
Jun 20183,300
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,072
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20172,760
Oct 20172,904
Sept 20173,048
Aug 20173,204
Jul 20172,700
Jun 20172,856
May 20172,940
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,700
Feb 20172,700
Jan 20172,700
Dec 20162,856
Nov 20162,820
Oct 20162,856
Sept 20162,856
Aug 20162,856
Jul 20162,928
Jun 20163,000
May 20162,700
Apr 20163,000
Mar 20163,000
Feb 20163,000
Jan 20162,856
Dec 20152,940
Nov 20152,700
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,700
Feb 20152,700
Dec 20142,856
Nov 20143,000
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20143,000
Jan 20143,000
Dec 20133,000
Nov 20133,000
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,292
Sept 20112,256
Aug 20112,256
Jul 20112,256
Jun 20112,256
May 20112,256
Apr 20112,292
Mar 20112,361
Feb 20112,244
Jan 20112,136
Dec 20102,256
Nov 20102,256
Oct 20102,535
Sept 20102,580
Aug 20102,580
Jul 20102,580
Jun 20102,580
May 20102,580
Apr 20102,580
Mar 20102,561
Feb 20102,556
Dec 20092,657
Nov 20092,712
Oct 20092,712
Sept 20092,712
Aug 20092,634
Jul 20092,517
Jun 20092,400
May 20092,400
Apr 20092,400
Mar 20092,400
Feb 20092,400
Dec 20082,478
Nov 20082,250
Oct 20082,562
Sept 20082,556
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,400
May 20082,157
Apr 20082,076
Mar 20082,076
Feb 20082,076
Dec 20071,920
Nov 20071,959
Oct 20071,959
Sept 20071,998
Aug 20072,076
Jul 20072,076
Jun 20072,024
May 20072,076
Apr 20072,076
Mar 20072,076
Feb 20072,024

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189