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Sorghum in Dogofri

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

238–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

228–368

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 238 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 368 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Dogofri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 238 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 368 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 280–325 300 257–353 383 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 260–337 298 239–395 371 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 238–342 287 195–390 355 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 225–348 275 196–392 328 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 228–368 270 200–433 321 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026290
Jun 2026290
May 2026290
Apr 2026290
Mar 2026290
Feb 2026290
Jan 2026290
Dec 2025290
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025306
Aug 2025330
Jul 2025335
Jun 2025335
May 2025346
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025326
Feb 2025344
Jan 2025326
Dec 2024335
Nov 2024360
Oct 2024396
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024378
Jun 2024344
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024270
Nov 2023280
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023303
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023319
Jun 2023283
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023325
Feb 2023325
Dec 2022330
Nov 2022342
Oct 2022431
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022395
Jun 2022390
May 2022400
Apr 2022394
Mar 2022323
Feb 2022284
Jan 2022268
Dec 2021273
Nov 2021265
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021214
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021188
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020194
Oct 2020213
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020213
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019175
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018230
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017218
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017219
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015166
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015194
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015165
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014179
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014196
Jun 2014188
May 2014178
Apr 2014169
Mar 2014172
Feb 2014165
Jan 2014164
Dec 2013169
Nov 2013171
Oct 2013167
Sept 2013170
Aug 2013178
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012280
Aug 2012280
Jul 2012290
Jun 2012291
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011191
Sept 2011158
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011148
May 2011135
Apr 2011135
Mar 2011130
Feb 2011130
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010129
Nov 2010123
Oct 2010133
Sept 2010150
Aug 2010156
Jul 2010155
Jun 2010145
May 2010139
Apr 2010142
Mar 2010144
Feb 2010149
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009148
Nov 2009152
Oct 2009182
Sept 2009199
Aug 2009191
Jul 2009180
Jun 2009176
May 2009162
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009153
Feb 2009151
Jan 2009148
Dec 2008135
Nov 2008144
Oct 2008176
Sept 2008177
Aug 2008172
Jul 2008173
Jun 2008154
May 2008144
Apr 2008132
Mar 2008130
Feb 2008135
Jan 2008129
Dec 2007126
Nov 2007129
Oct 2007122
Sept 2007119
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007119
Jun 2007114
May 2007115
Apr 2007115
Mar 2007115
Feb 2007110
Jan 2007107

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-873-65-retail-kg.