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Rice (local) in Dogofri

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

294–396

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

279–389

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 294 and 396 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 279 and 389 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dogofri: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 294 and 396 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 279 and 389 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 328–390 345 317–417 436 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 306–383 339 296–438 409 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 294–396 334 248–493 396 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 293–421 334 260–568 398 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 279–389 326 229–393 387 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026345
Jul 2026340
Jun 2026313
May 2026325
Apr 2026336
Mar 2026336
Feb 2026336
Jan 2026338
Dec 2025348
Oct 2025354
Sept 2025375
Aug 2025400
Jun 2025363
May 2025389
Apr 2025435
Mar 2025443
Feb 2025443
Jan 2025443
Dec 2024443
Nov 2024414
Oct 2024443
Sept 2024503
Aug 2024503
Jul 2024457
Jun 2024423
May 2024435
Apr 2024438
Mar 2024423
Jan 2024375
Nov 2023363
Oct 2023363
Sept 2023374
Aug 2023419
Jul 2023372
Jun 2023366
May 2023430
Apr 2023438
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022408
Oct 2022413
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022428
Jul 2022391
Jun 2022375
May 2022377
Apr 2022377
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022363
Jan 2022350
Dec 2021350
Nov 2021355
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021362
Jul 2021330
Jun 2021330
May 2021350
Apr 2021348
Mar 2021341
Feb 2021329
Jan 2021301
Dec 2020325
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020334
Sept 2020347
Aug 2020319
Jul 2020300
Jun 2020305
May 2020325
Apr 2020319
Mar 2020300
Feb 2020300
Jan 2020297
Dec 2019287
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018368
Mar 2018328
Feb 2018321
Jan 2018300
Dec 2017300
Nov 2017300
Oct 2017320
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017347
Jul 2017328
Jun 2017330
May 2017336
Apr 2017313
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016274
Oct 2016283
Sept 2016309
Aug 2016310
Jul 2016307
Jun 2016301
May 2016303
Apr 2016301
Mar 2016294
Feb 2016300
Jan 2016275
Dec 2015275
Nov 2015275
Oct 2015314
May 2015325
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015275
Jan 2015270
Dec 2014270
Nov 2014275
Oct 2014300
Sept 2014304
Aug 2014295
Jul 2014275
Jun 2014275
May 2014283
Apr 2014275
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014275
Jan 2014263
Dec 2013266
Nov 2013275
Oct 2013283
Sept 2013300
Aug 2013275
Jul 2013275
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012295
Jun 2012344
Nov 2011310
Oct 2011318
Sept 2011341
Aug 2011338
Jul 2011319
Jun 2011300
May 2011312
Apr 2011287
Mar 2011268
Feb 2011256
Jan 2011247
Dec 2010250
Nov 2010255
Oct 2010258
Sept 2010265
Aug 2010273
Jul 2010256
Jun 2010246
May 2010275
Apr 2010275
Mar 2010272
Feb 2010297
Jan 2010272
Dec 2009271
Nov 2009262
Oct 2009250
Sept 2009309
Aug 2009338
Jul 2009328
Jun 2009322
May 2009338
Apr 2009300
Mar 2009300
Feb 2009300
Jan 2009297
Dec 2008287
Nov 2008275
Oct 2008300
Sept 2008366
Aug 2008333
Jul 2008332
Jun 2008318
May 2008310
Apr 2008300
Mar 2008262
Feb 2008262
Jan 2008225
Dec 2007222
Nov 2007225
Sept 2007256
Aug 2007245
Jul 2007225
Jun 2007229
May 2007243
Apr 2007225
Mar 2007225
Feb 2007225
Jan 2007225

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-873-71-retail-kg.