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Food basket in Dogofri

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,649–4,128

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,400–4,336

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,120 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,649 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,400 and 4,336 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Dogofri: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,120 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,649 and 4,128 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,400 and 4,336 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,932–3,789 3,155 2,898–3,864
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,782–4,035 3,153 2,618–5,187
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,649–4,128 3,130 2,600–5,255
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,449–4,052 3,017 2,200–4,246
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,400–4,336 2,947 2,064–4,953
Cost history (201 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,120
Jul 20263,480
Jun 20263,480
May 20263,480
Apr 20263,480
Mar 20263,480
Feb 20263,480
Jan 20263,480
Dec 20253,480
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,672
Aug 20253,960
Jul 20254,020
Jun 20254,020
May 20254,152
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20253,972
Feb 20254,128
Jan 20253,972
Dec 20244,020
Nov 20244,320
Oct 20244,752
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,536
Jun 20244,128
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,240
Nov 20233,360
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,636
Aug 20233,900
Jul 20233,756
Jun 20233,396
May 20233,600
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,900
Feb 20233,900
Dec 20223,960
Nov 20224,164
Oct 20225,256
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,740
Jun 20224,680
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,728
Mar 20223,876
Feb 20223,408
Jan 20223,216
Dec 20213,276
Nov 20213,180
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20212,880
Jul 20212,568
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,256
Jan 20212,100
Dec 20202,100
Nov 20202,328
Oct 20202,556
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,556
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20202,100
May 20202,100
Apr 20202,100
Mar 20202,100
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,100
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20182,844
Jan 20182,400
Dec 20172,400
Nov 20172,616
Oct 20172,700
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20172,700
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,628
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,256
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,100
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,100
Aug 20162,100
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Apr 20161,800
Mar 20161,800
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20161,800
Dec 20151,860
Nov 20151,992
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,328
Apr 20152,100
Mar 20152,100
Feb 20152,100
Jan 20151,980
Dec 20142,100
Nov 20142,148
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,400
Jul 20142,424
Jun 20142,376
May 20142,300
Apr 20142,112
Mar 20142,160
Feb 20142,160
Jan 20142,196
Dec 20132,220
Nov 20132,256
Oct 20132,196
Sept 20132,220
Aug 20132,250
Jul 20132,160
Sept 20123,480
Aug 20123,528
Jul 20123,492
Jun 20123,492
Nov 20112,376
Oct 20112,205
Sept 20111,845
Aug 20111,830
Jul 20111,800
Jun 20111,755
May 20111,608
Apr 20111,560
Mar 20111,560
Feb 20111,545
Jan 20111,575
Dec 20101,574
Nov 20101,440
Oct 20101,539
Sept 20101,695
Aug 20101,915
Jul 20101,875
Jun 20101,740
May 20101,653
Apr 20101,680
Mar 20101,661
Feb 20101,692
Jan 20101,770
Dec 20091,831
Nov 20091,860
Oct 20092,184
Sept 20092,391
Aug 20092,295
Jul 20092,175
Jun 20092,156
May 20091,950
Apr 20091,920
Mar 20091,855
Feb 20091,866
Jan 20091,839
Dec 20081,649
Nov 20081,780
Oct 20082,129
Sept 20082,136
Aug 20082,058
Jul 20082,024
Jun 20081,851
May 20081,683
Apr 20081,572
Mar 20081,551
Feb 20081,620
Jan 20081,552
Dec 20071,515
Nov 20071,548
Oct 20071,455
Sept 20071,413
Aug 20071,484
Jul 20071,433
Jun 20071,347
May 20071,361
Apr 20071,380
Mar 20071,372
Feb 20071,344
Jan 20071,310

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189