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Rice (local) in Dougouolo

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

387–469

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

366–511

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 387 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 366 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dougouolo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 387 and 469 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 366 and 511 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 728); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 401–441 412 385–455 500 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 395–452 414 381–501 498 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 387–469 413 331–576 481 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 370–500 409 327–724 451 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 366–511 408 315–728 463 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026412
Jul 2026412
Jun 2026413
May 2026412
Apr 2026413
Mar 2026412
Feb 2026412
Jan 2026435
Dec 2025438
Oct 2025441
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025458
Jun 2025450
May 2025453
Apr 2025463
Mar 2025463
Feb 2025467
Jan 2025463
Dec 2024456
Nov 2024485
Oct 2024541
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024478
Jul 2024463
Jun 2024463
May 2024475
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024425
Jan 2024434
Nov 2023453
Oct 2023463
Sept 2023465
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023453
Jun 2023463
May 2023463
Apr 2023470
Mar 2023525
Feb 2023525
Nov 2022447
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022475
Aug 2022444
Jul 2022418
Jun 2022413
May 2022406
Apr 2022385
Mar 2022378
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022368
Dec 2021363
Nov 2021366
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021353
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021347
Feb 2021338
Dec 2020338
Nov 2020338
Oct 2020338
Sept 2020338
Aug 2020338
Jul 2020328
Jun 2020325
May 2020325
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020321
Feb 2020312
Jan 2020312
Dec 2019312
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018368
Mar 2018362
Feb 2018362
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017356
Oct 2017378
Sept 2017376
Aug 2017348
Jul 2017342
Jun 2017343
May 2017338
Apr 2017335
Mar 2017338
Feb 2017338
Jan 2017331
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016327
Oct 2016344
Sept 2016341
Aug 2016338
Jul 2016338
Jun 2016339
May 2016335
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016323
Feb 2016313
Jan 2016313
Dec 2015313
Nov 2015330
Oct 2015359
May 2015344
Apr 2015313
Mar 2015313
Feb 2015313
Jan 2015313
Dec 2014309
Nov 2014330
Oct 2014338
Sept 2014323
Aug 2014302
Jul 2014299
Jun 2014303
May 2014301
Apr 2014283
Mar 2014284
Feb 2014301
Jan 2014303
Dec 2013307
Nov 2013311
Oct 2013310
Sept 2013298
Aug 2013309
Jul 2013308
Sept 2012363
Aug 2012363
Jul 2012369
Jun 2012383
Oct 2011366
Sept 2011354
Aug 2011336
Jul 2011325
Jun 2011316
May 2011300
Apr 2011302
Mar 2011298
Feb 2011292
Jan 2011286
Dec 2010295
Nov 2010300
Oct 2010306
Sept 2010310
Aug 2010308
Jul 2010300
Jun 2010293
May 2010285
Apr 2010301
Mar 2010305
Feb 2010312
Jan 2010300
Dec 2009312
Nov 2009308
Oct 2009301
Sept 2009308
Aug 2009306
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009312
May 2009302
Apr 2009306
Mar 2009330
Feb 2009336
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008340
Oct 2008388
Sept 2008400
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008358
Jun 2008350
May 2008325
Apr 2008300
Mar 2008280
Feb 2008275
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007283
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007281
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007262

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-874-71-retail-kg.