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Maize in Fadjiguila

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–302

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

187–353

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 187 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Fadjiguila: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 302 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 187 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 608); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 223–272 248 196–288 321 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 214–277 245 188–314 303 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–302 243 179–438 295 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 197–336 236 176–608 278 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 187–353 232 144–596 271 –
Price history (223 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026240
Feb 2026240
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025275
Apr 2025280
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024270
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024290
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023285
Apr 2023275
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022356
Aug 2022365
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022306
Mar 2022280
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022263
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021210
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021156
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020194
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020195
May 2020181
Apr 2020194
Mar 2020170
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019155
Nov 2019162
Oct 2019165
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019193
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018172
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018210
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018237
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018195
Dec 2017193
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017218
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017195
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017181
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017160
Dec 2016163
Nov 2016170
Oct 2016181
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016195
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016181
Jan 2016188
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015206
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015181
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014183
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014183
Sept 2014181
Aug 2014188
Jul 2014195
Jun 2014188
May 2014175
Apr 2014191
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013183
Aug 2013194
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013190
Mar 2013198
Feb 2013194
Jan 2013195
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012233
Sept 2012263
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011171
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010155
Oct 2010181
Sept 2010188
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010185
May 2010175
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010178
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009195
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009180
Feb 2009181
Jan 2009181
Dec 2008160
Nov 2008156
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008191
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008169
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007128
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007139
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-875-51-retail-kg.