Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Rice (imported) in Fadjiguila

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

413–473

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

404–517

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 413 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 517 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Fadjiguila: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 413 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 517 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 656); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 427–466 449 413–490 481 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 426–472 450 389–497 494 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 413–473 449 341–495 495 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 406–488 448 340–561 484 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 404–517 445 353–656 486 –
Price history (221 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Oct 20252,725Data error
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025450
Jul 2025450
Jun 2025450
May 2025450
Apr 2025450
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024525
Jul 2024510
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023490
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023490
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022444
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022394
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022380
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022375
Dec 2021375
Nov 2021375
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021369
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021356
Jan 2021350
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020356
Oct 2020363
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020356
Mar 2020345
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019368
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017370
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015356
May 2015350
Apr 2015350
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014338
Jul 2014340
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014356
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013350
Mar 2013350
Feb 2013350
Jan 2013350
Nov 2012350
Oct 2012350
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012350
Jul 2012350
Jun 2012355
Nov 2011375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011369
Aug 2011365
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011357
Apr 2011352
Mar 2011353
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010320
May 2010300
Apr 2010300
Mar 2010300
Feb 2010300
Jan 2010306
Dec 2009305
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009300
Sept 2009300
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009300
May 2009300
Apr 2009300
Mar 2009360
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008381
Sept 2008375
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008381
Jun 2008375
May 2008338
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008325
Feb 2008298
Jan 2008288
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-875-64-retail-kg.