Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Fadjiguila

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

230–376

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

213–395

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 230 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 213 and 395 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Fadjiguila: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 230 and 376 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 213 and 395 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 250–335 283 228–351 377 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 240–354 283 217–398 380 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 230–376 279 195–406 372 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 218–399 276 170–524 366 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 213–395 262 180–475 341 –
Price history (224 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026288
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025320
Jun 2025325
May 2025338
Apr 2025340
Mar 2025338
Feb 2025362
Jan 2025338
Dec 2024380
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024385
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024338
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023330
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023325
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023375
Feb 2023375
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022456
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022410
Apr 2022363
Mar 2022320
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021231
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020230
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020245
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020187
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019180
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018235
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017256
Oct 2017300
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017255
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017244
May 2017230
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017213
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016206
Nov 2016205
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015205
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015206
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015215
May 2015225
Apr 2015220
Mar 2015217
Feb 2015206
Jan 2015208
Dec 2014208
Nov 2014219
Oct 2014217
Sept 2014206
Aug 2014212
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014220
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014228
Jan 2014206
Dec 2013204
Nov 2013210
Oct 2013223
Sept 2013217
Aug 2013225
Jul 2013228
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013223
Mar 2013231
Feb 2013225
Jan 2013235
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012316
Sept 2012314
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012309
Jun 2012300
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011178
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011178
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011174
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011171
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010194
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010190
May 2010181
Apr 2010194
Mar 2010195
Feb 2010195
Jan 2010188
Dec 2009200
Nov 2009212
Oct 2009220
Sept 2009230
Aug 2009212
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008170
Nov 2008188
Oct 2008191
Sept 2008198
Aug 2008194
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007143
Jun 2007144
May 2007143
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007145
Feb 2007142
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-875-73-retail-kg.