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Food basket in Fadjiguila

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,754–4,512

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,561–4,742

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,754 and 4,512 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,561 and 4,742 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Fadjiguila: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,450 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,754 and 4,512 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,561 and 4,742 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,996–4,018 3,391 2,740–4,212
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,881–4,254 3,395 2,606–4,772
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,754–4,512 3,346 2,341–4,872
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,617–4,790 3,316 2,038–6,286
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,561–4,742 3,147 2,159–5,694
Cost history (224 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,450
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,600
Feb 20263,600
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,600
Aug 20253,600
Jul 20253,840
Jun 20253,900
May 20254,056
Apr 20254,080
Mar 20254,056
Feb 20254,350
Jan 20254,056
Dec 20244,560
Nov 20244,800
Oct 20245,400
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,620
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20244,056
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,960
Sept 20233,900
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,900
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,500
Feb 20234,500
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20225,040
Oct 20225,472
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,160
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,920
Apr 20224,356
Mar 20223,840
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,856
Sept 20212,772
Aug 20213,000
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,760
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,940
Aug 20202,472
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,340
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,244
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,160
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,400
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,400
Oct 20182,700
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20182,820
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,072
Oct 20173,600
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,060
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,928
May 20172,760
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,556
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,472
Nov 20162,460
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,460
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,472
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,580
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,640
Mar 20152,604
Feb 20152,472
Jan 20152,496
Dec 20142,496
Nov 20142,628
Oct 20142,604
Sept 20142,472
Aug 20142,550
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,640
Mar 20142,604
Feb 20142,736
Jan 20142,472
Dec 20132,448
Nov 20132,520
Oct 20132,676
Sept 20132,604
Aug 20132,700
Jul 20132,736
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,676
Mar 20132,775
Feb 20132,700
Jan 20132,820
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,792
Sept 20123,768
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,708
Jun 20123,600
Nov 20112,400
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,130
Aug 20112,100
Jul 20112,130
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,088
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20112,055
Dec 20101,950
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,325
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,280
May 20102,175
Apr 20102,325
Mar 20102,340
Feb 20102,340
Jan 20102,250
Dec 20092,400
Nov 20092,550
Oct 20092,640
Sept 20092,760
Aug 20092,550
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,268
May 20092,100
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,040
Nov 20082,250
Oct 20082,295
Sept 20082,376
Aug 20082,325
Jul 20082,340
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,716
Jun 20071,725
May 20071,716
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,740
Feb 20071,710
Jan 20071,800

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189