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Millet in Faladié

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

248–378

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

241–426

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 248 and 378 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 241 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Faladié: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 248 and 378 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 241 and 426 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 576); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 276–345 298 246–360 392 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 263–365 299 240–392 393 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 248–378 298 198–380 392 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 243–409 294 218–551 377 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 241–426 289 207–576 354 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026288
Jun 2026313
May 2026325
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025320
Aug 2025338
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025344
Dec 2024410
Nov 2024450
Oct 2024430
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024370
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023338
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Dec 2022413
Nov 2022415
Oct 2022431
Sept 2022421
Aug 2022402
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022315
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021294
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021210
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021205
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020225
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019185
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019190
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019212
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018235
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018255
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017262
Oct 2017290
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017260
Jul 2017238
Jun 2017225
May 2017225
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017206
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016220
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016210
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015219
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015213
Jan 2015217
Dec 2014213
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014225
Nov 2013225
Oct 2013225
Sept 2013242
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013235
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013225
Feb 2013238
Jan 2013239
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012313
Sept 2012306
Aug 2012319
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012294
Mar 2012262
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011181
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011169
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011170
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011156
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010188
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010190
May 2010181
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010185
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010194
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009205
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009198
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008160
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008190
Aug 2008185
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007138
May 2007145
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-876-73-retail-kg.