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Maize in Fana

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

133–224

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

125–244

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 125 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Fana: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 133 and 224 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 125 and 244 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 166–216 190 163–253 259 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 156–225 185 144–284 263 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 133–224 161 108–296 203 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 131–239 164 105–344 213 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 125–244 162 89.2–317 208 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026194
Jul 2026175
Jun 2026175
May 2026175
Apr 2026169
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026175
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025169
Oct 2025185
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025220
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025200
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024194
Oct 2024255
Sept 2024281
Aug 2024317
Jul 2024285
Jun 2024231
May 2024200
Apr 2024200
Mar 2024200
Jan 2024180
Nov 2023170
Oct 2023194
Sept 2023238
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023231
May 2023240
Apr 2023256
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022225
Oct 2022263
Sept 2022356
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022335
May 2022313
Apr 2022294
Mar 2022260
Feb 2022244
Jan 2022213
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021188
Oct 2021188
Sept 2021220
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021181
Jun 2021185
May 2021194
Apr 2021181
Mar 2021190
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020144
Jun 2020140
May 2020148
Apr 2020130
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 201990
Sept 2019110
Aug 2019110
Jul 2019115
Jun 2019125
May 2019130
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019110
Jan 2019125
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018425
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018156
Dec 2017143
Nov 2017125
Oct 2017150
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017385Data error
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017150
May 2017150
Apr 2017146
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016140
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016170
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016155
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015125
Oct 2015158
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015156
May 2015150
Apr 2015140
Mar 2015135
Feb 2015128
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014125
Nov 2014125
Oct 2014130
Sept 2014132
Aug 2014132
Jul 2014148
Jun 2014150
May 2014150
Apr 2014141
Mar 2014140
Feb 2014137
Jan 2014135
Dec 2013128
Nov 2013125
Oct 2013135
Sept 2013146
Aug 2013145
Jul 2013160
Sept 2012240
Aug 2012242
Jul 2012249
Jun 2012250
Oct 2011152
Sept 2011158
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011140
Apr 2011138
Mar 2011135
Feb 2011130
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010120
Nov 2010116
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010139
Aug 2010157
Jul 2010165
Jun 2010154
May 2010150
Apr 2010148
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009127
Nov 2009125
Oct 2009125
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009168
Jun 2009162
May 2009147
Apr 2009146
Mar 2009141
Feb 2009145
Jan 2009142
Dec 2008116
Nov 2008112
Oct 2008125
Sept 2008162
Aug 2008152
Jul 2008160
Jun 2008133
May 2008124
Apr 2008114
Mar 2008110
Feb 2008110
Jan 2008104
Dec 2007104
Nov 2007100
Oct 2007119
Sept 2007109
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007100
Jun 200796
May 200796.4
Apr 200790
Mar 200795
Feb 200795.5
Jan 200784.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-877-51-retail-kg.