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Millet in Fana

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

179–343

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

162–322

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 322 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Fana: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 179 and 343 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 162 and 322 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 650); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 212–295 245 202–355 306 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 201–324 245 181–422 331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 179–343 232 146–509 285 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 169–363 221 135–650 272 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 162–322 205 116–356 257 –
Price history (209 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026206
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025240
Sept 2025238
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025275
May 2025275
Apr 2025320
Mar 2025294
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025294
Dec 2024281
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024415
Sept 2024356
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024360
Jun 2024288
May 2024255
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023263
Aug 2023270
Jul 2023275
Jun 2023250
May 2023265
Apr 2023306
Mar 2023325
Feb 2023325
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022340
Oct 2022413
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022394
Jun 2022370
May 2022350
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022295
Feb 2022269
Jan 2022238
Dec 2021245
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021188
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021185
May 2021194
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020205
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020162
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019130
Sept 2019135
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019135
Jun 2019150
May 2019175
Mar 2019155
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019175
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018231
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018193
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017230
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017212
Jun 2017221
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016183
Sept 2016188
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016168
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015195
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015173
Jan 2015168
Dec 2014173
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014198
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014189
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011166
Aug 2011150
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011145
Apr 2011140
Mar 2011135
Feb 2011134
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010148
Oct 2010140
Sept 2010148
Aug 2010169
Jul 2010172
Jun 2010156
May 2010150
Apr 2010142
Jan 2010148
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009138
Oct 2009175
Aug 2009187
Jul 2009173
Jun 2009162
May 2009145
Apr 2009137
Mar 2009138
Feb 2009139
Jan 2009131
Dec 2008121
Nov 2008151
Oct 2008158
Sept 2008161
Aug 2008153
Jul 2008162
Jun 2008133
May 2008124
Apr 2008116
Mar 2008114
Feb 2008110
Jan 2008104
Dec 2007118
Nov 2007120
Oct 2007125
Sept 2007119
Aug 2007120
Jul 2007112
Jun 2007108
May 2007107
Apr 2007110
Mar 2007103
Feb 2007106
Jan 200792.8

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-877-73-retail-kg.