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Maize in Kayes N'Dy

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

227–368

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

212–437

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 227 and 368 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 212 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kayes N'Dy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 227 and 368 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 212 and 437 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 789); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 255–337 297 205–433 333 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 246–350 295 194–510 335 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 227–368 286 172–520 326 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 215–390 281 154–651 315 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 212–437 279 147–789 316 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024342
Aug 2024369
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023280
Oct 2023275
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022270
Dec 2021263
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021283
Sept 2021267
Aug 2021283
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021237
Apr 2021255
Mar 2021235
Feb 2021188
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020188
Nov 2020203
Oct 2020197
Sept 2020197
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020188
Jun 2020190
May 2020204
Apr 2020207
Mar 2020230
Feb 2020194
Jan 2020194
Dec 2019197
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019197
Jun 2019194
May 2019191
Apr 2019196
Mar 2019197
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019191
Dec 2018205
Nov 2018191
Oct 2018247
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018230
Mar 2018208
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017196
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017227
Sept 2017209
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017156
Jun 2017167
May 2017169
Apr 2017164
Mar 2017164
Feb 2017164
Jan 2017156
Dec 2016164
Nov 2016188
Oct 2016172
Sept 2016172
Aug 2016172
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016156
May 2016156
Apr 2016156
Mar 2016156
Feb 2016182
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015156
Nov 2015164
Oct 2015187
Aug 2015164
Jul 2015156
Jun 2015169
May 2015180
Apr 2015156
Mar 2015156
Feb 2015156
Jan 2015156
Dec 2014156
Nov 2014156
Oct 2014156
Sept 2014156
Aug 2014156
Jul 2014156
Jun 2014156
May 2014156
Apr 2014177
Mar 2014188
Feb 2014188
Jan 2014188
Dec 2013188
Nov 2013172
Oct 2013156
Sept 2013188
Aug 2013194
Jul 2013190
Jun 2013167
May 2013172
Apr 2013188
Mar 2013188
Feb 2013188
Jan 2013156
Nov 2012188
Oct 2012200
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012250
May 2012234
Apr 2012219
Mar 2012219
Feb 2012219
Jan 2012244
Oct 2011188
Sept 2011156
Aug 2011156
Jul 2011156
Jun 2011156
May 2011156
Apr 2011156
Mar 2011156
Feb 2011156
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010141
Nov 2010138
Oct 2010148
Sept 2010156
Aug 2010169
Jul 2010156
Jun 2010156
May 2010156
Apr 2010156
Mar 2010156
Feb 2010156
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009156
Nov 2009162
Oct 2009188
Sept 2009188
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009188
Jun 2009162
May 2009156
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009156
Feb 2009156
Jan 2009156
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008148
Oct 2008156
Sept 2008188
Aug 2008177
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008164
May 2008156
Apr 2008156
Mar 2008156
Feb 2008156
Jan 2008133
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007133
Oct 2007156
Sept 2007156
Aug 2007156
Jul 2007156
Jun 2007156
May 2007156
Apr 2007156
Mar 2007157
Feb 2007156
Jan 2007156

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-879-51-retail-kg.