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Sorghum in Kayes N'Dy

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

287–460

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

263–519

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 287 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 263 and 519 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kayes N'Dy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 33% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 287 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 263 and 519 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 701); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 313–429 383 294–452 410 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 303–439 379 291–500 405 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 287–460 361 231–562 398 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 270–488 351 206–635 388 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 263–519 345 238–701 370 –
Price history (178 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026400
Jul 2026325
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Mar 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024330
Nov 2024350
Jul 2024350
Jun 2024350
May 2024350
Jan 2024375
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023390
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022433
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022450
Apr 2022388
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021263
Jul 2021267
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021240
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021250
Dec 2020250
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Dec 2019250
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Mar 2019237
Feb 2019237
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018272
Sept 2018287
Aug 2018279
Jul 2018280
Jun 2018262
May 2018250
Mar 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017237
Aug 2017197
Jul 2017190
Jun 2017192
Apr 2017191
Jan 2017184
Dec 2016180
Nov 2016188
Oct 2016188
Sept 2016177
Aug 2016172
Jul 2016156
Jun 2016156
Apr 2016172
Mar 2016164
Feb 2016188
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015156
Nov 2015188
Oct 2015203
Aug 2015188
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015169
Mar 2015177
Feb 2015189
Jan 2015171
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014156
Sept 2014156
Aug 2014180
Jul 2014188
Jun 2014188
May 2014156
Dec 2013188
Nov 2013172
Oct 2013156
Sept 2013188
Aug 2013191
Jul 2013190
Jun 2013172
May 2013172
Apr 2013188
Jan 2013203
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012290
Sept 2012263
Aug 2012288
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012275
Apr 2012280
Feb 2012275
Jan 2012300
Oct 2011156
Sept 2011156
Aug 2011156
Jul 2011156
Jun 2011156
May 2011156
Dec 2010141
Nov 2010156
Oct 2010156
Sept 2010172
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010156
Jun 2010156
May 2010156
Apr 2010156
Mar 2010156
Feb 2010156
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009156
Nov 2009162
Oct 2009188
Sept 2009188
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009188
Jun 2009162
Apr 2009156
Mar 2009156
Feb 2009156
Jan 2009156
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008164
Oct 2008188
Sept 2008188
Aug 2008180
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008169
Apr 2008156
Jan 2008133
Dec 2007125
Nov 2007133
Oct 2007156
Sept 2007156
Aug 2007156
Jul 2007156
Jun 2007156
May 2007162
Apr 2007156
Feb 2007156
Jan 2007156

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-879-65-retail-kg.