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Maize in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

161–246

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–259

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 161 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 161 and 246 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 259 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–249 223 185–265 308 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 184–251 220 176–260 292 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 161–246 192 145–263 244 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 159–256 194 134–299 249 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–259 191 118–282 238 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026242
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026206
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025225
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024200
Nov 2024206
Oct 2024288
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024288
Jul 2024250
Jun 2024205
May 2024206
Apr 2024213
Mar 2024200
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023175
Oct 2023225
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023260
Mar 2023275
Feb 2023275
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022260
Sept 2022331
Aug 2022331
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022319
May 2022300
Apr 2022288
Mar 2022244
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021238
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021235
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021211
Jun 2021181
May 2021170
Apr 2021165
Mar 2021148
Feb 2021135
Jan 2021125
Dec 2020125
Nov 2020125
Oct 2020163
Sept 2020149
Aug 2020136
Jul 2020135
Jun 2020135
May 2020135
Apr 2020135
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020117
Dec 2019110
Nov 2019110
Oct 2019135
Sept 2019135
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019130
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019125
Dec 2018133
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018206
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018190
May 2018186
Apr 2018160
Mar 2018160
Feb 2018157
Jan 2018150
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017142
Oct 2017142
Sept 2017142
Aug 2017500Data error
Jul 2017140
Jun 2017140
May 2017140
Apr 2017130
Mar 2017125
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017115
Dec 2016111
Nov 2016110
Oct 2016114
Sept 2016133
Aug 2016130
Jul 2016148
Jun 2016143
May 2016136
Apr 2016130
Mar 2016131
Feb 2016135
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015120
Nov 2015123
Oct 2015168
Aug 2015160
Jul 2015165
Jun 2015160
May 2015148
Apr 2015135
Mar 2015135
Feb 2015133
Jan 2015125
Dec 2014122
Nov 2014125
Oct 2014145
Sept 2014173
Aug 2014137
Jul 2014135
Jun 2014137
May 2014138
Apr 2014140
Mar 2014138
Feb 2014140
Jan 2014125
Dec 2013125
Nov 2013128
Oct 2013143
Sept 2013160
Aug 2013165
Jul 2013165
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012239
Jul 2012246
Jun 2012223
Oct 2011145
Sept 2011144
Aug 2011157
Jul 2011155
Jun 2011142
May 2011130
Apr 2011120
Mar 2011120
Feb 2011124
Jan 2011124
Dec 2010108
Nov 2010100
Oct 2010103
Sept 2010135
Aug 2010140
Jul 2010140
Jun 2010140
May 2010135
Apr 2010140
Mar 2010140
Feb 2010125
Jan 2010134
Dec 2009112
Nov 2009102
Oct 2009105
Sept 2009178
Aug 2009225
Jul 2009164
Jun 2009150
May 2009146
Apr 2009139
Mar 2009142
Feb 2009145
Jan 2009120
Dec 2008101
Nov 200898
Oct 200890
Sept 2008100
Aug 2008150
Jul 2008152
Jun 2008137
May 2008122
Apr 2008112
Mar 2008110
Feb 2008100
Jan 2008109
Dec 200798.8
Nov 2007100
Oct 2007105
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007112
Jun 2007100
May 2007100
Apr 200793.3
Mar 200785
Feb 200787.5
Jan 200788.5

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-881-51-retail-kg.