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Rice (imported) in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

376–539

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

361–560

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 20% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 361 and 560 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 20% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 376 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 361 and 560 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 395–517 414 357–523 522 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 387–537 416 320–562 525 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 376–539 414 307–540 525 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 366–578 411 299–721 526 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 361–560 410 298–619 547 –
Price history (207 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026400
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024510
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024513
Jun 2024475
May 2024450
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022413
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022400
May 2022410
Apr 2022438
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021381
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018350
Jun 2018350
May 2018375
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018368
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017325
Nov 2017325
Oct 2017325
Sept 2017325
Aug 2017325
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017325
May 2017325
Apr 2017325
Mar 2017325
Feb 2017325
Jan 2017325
Dec 2016325
Nov 2016325
Oct 2016325
Sept 2016325
Aug 2016325
Jul 2016325
Jun 2016325
May 2016325
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016325
Feb 2016325
Jan 2016325
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015325
Apr 2015325
Mar 2015325
Feb 2015325
Jan 2015325
Dec 2014325
Nov 2014325
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014375
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375
May 2014375
Apr 2014375
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012325
Jun 2012325
Oct 2011350
Sept 2011350
Aug 2011350
Jul 2011345
Jun 2011331
May 2011325
Apr 2011325
Mar 2011325
Feb 2011325
Jan 2011319
Dec 2010310
Nov 2010310
Oct 2010319
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010300
Jun 2010342
May 2010319
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009325
Nov 2009325
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009325
Jul 2009331
Jun 2009350
May 2009350
Apr 2009369
Mar 2009400
Feb 2009400
Jan 2009400
Dec 2008400
Nov 2008400
Oct 2008400
Sept 2008400
Aug 2008400
Jul 2008400
Jun 2008380
May 2008350
Apr 2008338
Mar 2008325
Feb 2008306
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007300
Jan 2007300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-881-64-retail-kg.