Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Sorghum in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–279

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

150–295

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 150 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 198–261 214 181–276 334 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 186–274 214 153–321 333 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–279 209 148–339 313 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 155–279 200 127–336 289 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 150–295 197 113–381 273 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026210
Jul 2026256
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026212
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024360
Aug 2024388
Jul 2024306
Jun 2024260
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022338
Oct 2022370
Sept 2022419
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022380
Jun 2022363
May 2022350
Apr 2022338
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022288
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021219
Oct 2021235
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021181
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021171
Feb 2021170
Jan 2021170
Dec 2020170
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020178
Aug 2020163
Jul 2020160
Jun 2020160
May 2020160
Apr 2020160
Mar 2020160
Feb 2020135
Jan 2020135
Dec 2019160
Nov 2019139
Oct 2019160
Sept 2019160
Aug 2019160
Jul 2019157
Jun 2019158
May 2019150
Apr 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019180
Dec 2018161
Nov 2018180
Oct 2018255
Sept 2018245
Aug 2018230
Jul 2018230
Jun 2018230
May 2018230
Apr 2018230
Mar 2018230
Feb 2018226
Jan 2018202
Dec 2017211
Nov 2017206
Oct 2017210
Sept 2017207
Aug 2017192
Jul 2017186
Jun 2017185
May 2017174
Apr 2017166
Mar 2017161
Feb 2017158
Jan 2017137
Dec 2016146
Nov 2016145
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016160
Jul 2016163
Jun 2016158
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016149
Feb 2016140
Jan 2016136
Dec 2015140
Nov 2015171
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015185
Jul 2015180
Jun 2015175
May 2015169
Apr 2015160
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015163
Jan 2015167
Dec 2014168
Nov 2014166
Oct 2014190
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014180
Jul 2014188
Jun 2014180
May 2014180
Apr 2014185
Mar 2014185
Feb 2014179
Jan 2014135
Dec 2013135
Nov 2013141
Oct 2013155
Sept 2013170
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Sept 2012270
Aug 2012261
Jul 2012270
Jun 2012278
Oct 2011207
Sept 2011181
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011171
Jun 2011160
May 2011149
Apr 2011140
Mar 2011145
Feb 2011149
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010129
Nov 2010123
Oct 2010160
Sept 2010165
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010170
Jun 2010160
May 2010150
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010150
Feb 2010152
Jan 2010152
Dec 2009121
Nov 2009146
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009191
Jul 2009182
Jun 2009175
May 2009166
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009153
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009120
Dec 200896.2
Nov 2008118
Oct 2008158
Sept 2008177
Aug 2008161
Jul 2008161
Jun 2008146
May 2008128
Apr 2008118
Mar 2008115
Feb 2008111
Jan 2008110
Dec 2007102
Nov 2007122
Oct 2007135
Sept 2007135
Aug 2007141
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007112
May 2007112
Apr 2007115
Mar 2007115
Feb 2007115
Jan 2007112

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-881-65-retail-kg.