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Rice (local) in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

427–561

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

415–655

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 561 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 655 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 561 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 655 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,003); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 454–535 475 446–551 566 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 447–538 474 444–554 562 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 427–561 471 404–687 532 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 432–613 470 415–880 555 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 415–655 466 363–1,003 555 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026475
Jul 2026525
Jun 2026525
May 2026525
Apr 2026525
Mar 2026525
Feb 2026525
Jan 2026525
Oct 2025625
Sept 2025625
Aug 2025625
Jun 2025500
May 2025688
Apr 2025750
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024525
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023538
Aug 2023550
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019487
Nov 2018488
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018500
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017500
Jun 2017500
May 2017500
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Dec 2016500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Dec 2014400
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014400
Jun 2014400
May 2014400
Apr 2014400
Mar 2014400
Feb 2014400
Jan 2014400
Nov 2013400
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013400
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012415
Jun 2012425
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011400
Jul 2011400
Jun 2011381
May 2011375
Apr 2011375
Mar 2011375
Feb 2011365
Jan 2011346
Dec 2010340
Nov 2010340
Oct 2010340
Sept 2010375
Aug 2010385
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010394
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010400
Feb 2010400
Jan 2010400
Nov 2009400
Oct 2009400
Sept 2009400
Aug 2009400
Jul 2009400
Jun 2009400
May 2009400
Apr 2009400
Mar 2009475
Feb 2009475
Jan 2009475
Nov 2008465
Oct 2008400
Sept 2008400
Aug 2008425
Jul 2008425
Jun 2008405
May 2008375
Apr 2008350
Mar 2008325
Feb 2008325
Jan 2008325
Dec 2007324
Nov 2007325
Oct 2007325
Sept 2007325
Aug 2007325
Jul 2007325
Jun 2007306
May 2007300
Apr 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007306
Jan 2007325

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-881-71-retail-kg.