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Millet in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

220–460

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

196–463

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 40% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 463 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kita: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 40% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 460 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 463 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 843); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 250–394 331 217–414 368 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 239–418 329 220–493 369 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 220–460 313 155–651 366 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 212–489 291 178–843 348 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 196–463 254 148–581 311 –
Price history (215 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026350
Jul 2026262
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025313
Aug 2025325
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025263
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025263
Dec 2024365
Nov 2024375
Oct 2024394
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024463
Jul 2024350
Jun 2024260
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023319
Aug 2023306
Jul 2023340
Jun 2023325
May 2023325
Apr 2023340
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022419
Oct 2022415
Sept 2022431
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022380
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022331
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021288
Nov 2021244
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021231
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021188
Jun 2021180
May 2021195
Apr 2021195
Mar 2021184
Feb 2021180
Jan 2021180
Dec 2020214
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020206
Aug 2020196
Jul 2020195
Jun 2020195
May 2020192
Apr 2020173
Mar 2020166
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020155
Dec 2019160
Nov 2019160
Oct 2019185
Sept 2019185
Aug 2019185
Jul 2019182
Jun 2019189
May 2019180
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019187
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018188
Oct 2018260
Sept 2018252
Aug 2018240
Jul 2018240
Jun 2018240
May 2018232
Apr 2018230
Mar 2018230
Feb 2018226
Jan 2018220
Dec 2017236
Nov 2017261
Oct 2017244
Sept 2017230
Aug 2017230
Jul 2017226
Jun 2017225
May 2017203
Apr 2017185
Mar 2017169
Feb 2017164
Jan 2017199
Dec 2016210
Nov 2016180
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016168
Aug 2016170
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016180
May 2016164
Apr 2016160
Mar 2016158
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016168
Dec 2015190
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015210
Jul 2015208
Jun 2015203
May 2015191
Apr 2015185
Mar 2015185
Feb 2015183
Jan 2015192
Dec 2014205
Nov 2014213
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014212
Jul 2014210
Jun 2014210
May 2014205
Apr 2014193
Mar 2014190
Feb 2014185
Jan 2014185
Dec 2013185
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013190
Aug 2013192
Jul 2013190
Sept 2012310
Aug 2012310
Jul 2012317
Jun 2012308
Oct 2011209
Sept 2011186
Aug 2011182
Jul 2011176
Jun 2011165
May 2011161
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011155
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010167
Oct 2010167
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010190
Jul 2010175
Jun 2010170
May 2010155
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010150
Feb 2010152
Jan 2010168
Dec 2009200
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009202
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009180
Jun 2009176
May 2009157
Apr 2009142
Mar 2009140
Feb 2009148
Jan 2009120
Dec 2008125
Nov 2008175
Oct 2008166
Sept 2008182
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008165
Jun 2008146
May 2008129
Apr 2008118
Mar 2008115
Feb 2008112
Jan 2008122
Dec 2007130
Nov 2007138
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007150
May 2007125
Apr 2007117
Mar 2007115
Feb 2007111
Jan 2007119

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-881-73-retail-kg.