Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Kita

Kayes, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,646–5,517

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,347–5,557

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,200 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,646 and 5,517 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,347 and 5,557 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kita: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,200 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,646 and 5,517 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,347 and 5,557 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,112); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,001–4,733 3,973 2,605–4,964
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,863–5,022 3,947 2,638–5,918
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,646–5,517 3,756 1,858–7,815
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,539–5,870 3,497 2,135–10,112
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,347–5,557 3,048 1,780–6,977
Cost history (215 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,200
Jul 20263,150
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,000
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,756
Aug 20253,900
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20253,156
Feb 20253,600
Jan 20253,156
Dec 20244,380
Nov 20244,500
Oct 20244,728
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20245,556
Jul 20244,200
Jun 20243,120
May 20243,000
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20243,000
Jan 20243,000
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,828
Aug 20233,672
Jul 20234,080
Jun 20233,900
May 20233,900
Apr 20234,080
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20224,500
Nov 20225,028
Oct 20224,980
Sept 20225,172
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20225,100
Jun 20225,100
May 20224,560
Apr 20224,200
Mar 20223,972
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,456
Nov 20212,928
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,772
Aug 20212,640
Jul 20212,256
Jun 20212,160
May 20212,340
Apr 20212,340
Mar 20212,208
Feb 20212,160
Jan 20212,160
Dec 20202,568
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,472
Aug 20202,352
Jul 20202,340
Jun 20202,340
May 20202,304
Apr 20202,076
Mar 20201,992
Feb 20201,800
Jan 20201,860
Dec 20191,920
Nov 20191,920
Oct 20192,220
Sept 20192,220
Aug 20192,220
Jul 20192,184
Jun 20192,268
May 20192,160
Apr 20192,100
Mar 20192,100
Feb 20192,100
Jan 20192,244
Dec 20182,100
Nov 20182,250
Oct 20183,120
Sept 20183,024
Aug 20182,880
Jul 20182,880
Jun 20182,880
May 20182,784
Apr 20182,760
Mar 20182,760
Feb 20182,712
Jan 20182,640
Dec 20172,832
Nov 20173,132
Oct 20172,928
Sept 20172,760
Aug 20172,760
Jul 20172,712
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,436
Apr 20172,220
Mar 20172,028
Feb 20171,968
Jan 20172,388
Dec 20162,520
Nov 20162,160
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,016
Aug 20162,040
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,160
May 20161,968
Apr 20161,920
Mar 20161,896
Feb 20161,800
Jan 20162,016
Dec 20152,280
Nov 20152,700
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,520
Jul 20152,496
Jun 20152,436
May 20152,292
Apr 20152,220
Mar 20152,220
Feb 20152,196
Jan 20152,304
Dec 20142,460
Nov 20142,556
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20142,544
Jul 20142,520
Jun 20142,520
May 20142,460
Apr 20142,316
Mar 20142,280
Feb 20142,220
Jan 20142,220
Dec 20132,220
Nov 20132,100
Oct 20132,100
Sept 20132,280
Aug 20132,310
Jul 20132,280
Sept 20123,720
Aug 20123,720
Jul 20123,804
Jun 20123,696
Oct 20112,508
Sept 20112,235
Aug 20112,180
Jul 20112,113
Jun 20111,984
May 20111,932
Apr 20111,800
Mar 20111,800
Feb 20111,800
Jan 20111,860
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,000
Oct 20102,004
Sept 20102,100
Aug 20102,280
Jul 20102,100
Jun 20102,040
May 20101,860
Apr 20101,800
Mar 20101,800
Feb 20101,830
Jan 20102,020
Dec 20092,400
Nov 20092,400
Oct 20092,430
Sept 20092,520
Aug 20092,400
Jul 20092,160
Jun 20092,115
May 20091,884
Apr 20091,710
Mar 20091,680
Feb 20091,770
Jan 20091,440
Dec 20081,500
Nov 20082,100
Oct 20081,995
Sept 20082,180
Aug 20082,100
Jul 20081,980
Jun 20081,752
May 20081,545
Apr 20081,410
Mar 20081,380
Feb 20081,350
Jan 20081,470
Dec 20071,560
Nov 20071,650
Oct 20071,680
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,800
May 20071,500
Apr 20071,400
Mar 20071,380
Feb 20071,335
Jan 20071,425

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189