Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Rice (imported) in Koulikoro Gare

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

403–481

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

389–502

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 403 and 481 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 502 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koulikoro Gare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 403 and 481 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 502 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 420–470 447 394–489 488 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 410–477 448 375–508 495 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 403–481 447 339–502 498 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 396–498 445 349–576 485 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 389–502 439 335–577 486 –
Price history (225 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026454
Jun 2026465
May 2026462
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026400
Dec 2025402
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025470
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025460
May 2025458
Apr 2025460
Mar 2025498
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025498
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024500
Apr 2024530
Mar 2024518
Jan 2024483
Nov 2023480
Oct 2023480
Sept 2023464
Aug 2023461
Jul 2023476
Jun 2023464
May 2023475
Apr 2023476
Mar 2023475
Feb 2023475
Dec 2022478
Nov 2022475
Oct 2022478
Sept 2022448
Aug 2022426
Jul 2022410
Jun 2022410
May 2022410
Apr 2022410
Mar 2022390
Feb 2022390
Jan 2022388
Dec 2021379
Nov 2021376
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021371
Jan 2021365
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020350
Apr 2020356
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019370
Jul 2019362
Jun 2019350
May 2019362
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019356
Jan 2019350
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018350
Aug 2018368
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017375
Apr 2017360
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015366
May 2015350
Apr 2015363
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013350
Mar 2013350
Feb 2013350
Jan 2013350
Nov 2012350
Oct 2012350
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012343
Jul 2012345
Jun 2012365
May 2012375
Apr 2012375
Mar 2012375
Feb 2012375
Jan 2012375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011369
Apr 2011360
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010331
May 2010318
Apr 2010320
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010317
Dec 2009300
Nov 2009319
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009300
May 2009310
Apr 2009330
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009375
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008375
Sept 2008378
Aug 2008379
Jul 2008398
Jun 2008384
May 2008351
Apr 2008332
Mar 2008325
Feb 2008306
Jan 2008297
Dec 2007277
Nov 2007278
Oct 2007279
Sept 2007282
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-882-64-retail-kg.