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Sorghum in Koulikoro Gare

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

183–284

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

158–300

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Koulikoro Gare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 209–269 243 198–291 304 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–278 242 183–320 303 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 183–284 233 146–324 294 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 162–304 224 107–396 278 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 158–300 217 101–341 263 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026210
Jun 2026210
May 2026210
Apr 2026210
Mar 2026210
Feb 2026210
Jan 2026210
Dec 2025210
Oct 2025210
Sept 2025223
Aug 2025253
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025255
Apr 2025275
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024278
Nov 2024320
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024371
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024358
Jun 2024308
May 2024273
Apr 2024270
Mar 2024275
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023281
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023299
Aug 2023294
Jul 2023271
Jun 2023263
May 2023275
Apr 2023275
Mar 2023275
Feb 2023275
Dec 2022280
Nov 2022318
Oct 2022406
Sept 2022420
Aug 2022411
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022390
May 2022370
Apr 2022367
Mar 2022291
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021210
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021192
Jun 2021190
May 2021190
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021193
Jan 2021185
Dec 2020196
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020194
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019181
Jun 2019185
May 2019181
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018195
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018242
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018228
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018225
Feb 2018214
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017225
Nov 2017228
Oct 2017228
Sept 2017220
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017188
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016188
Jun 2016178
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015178
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015176
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014188
Nov 2014190
Oct 2014195
Sept 2014179
Aug 2014181
Jul 2014193
Jun 2014180
May 2014184
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014183
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013201
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013220
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013188
Nov 2012213
Oct 2012272
Sept 2012290
Aug 2012299
Jul 2012306
Jun 2012300
May 2012296
Apr 2012288
Mar 2012249
Feb 2012230
Jan 2012214
Oct 2011184
Sept 2011162
Aug 2011165
Jul 2011165
Jun 2011162
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011148
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010148
Oct 2010165
Sept 2010171
Aug 2010177
Jul 2010174
Jun 2010171
May 2010170
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009167
Nov 2009180
Oct 2009194
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009186
Jul 2009181
Jun 2009175
May 2009152
Apr 2009151
Mar 2009163
Feb 2009162
Jan 2009132
Dec 2008126
Nov 2008133
Oct 2008176
Sept 2008176
Aug 2008171
Jul 2008182
Jun 2008161
May 2008138
Apr 2008137
Mar 2008141
Feb 2008142
Jan 2008131
Dec 2007128
Nov 2007137
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007132
Aug 2007131
Jul 2007138
Jun 2007118
May 2007116
Apr 2007120
Mar 2007121
Feb 2007125
Jan 2007107

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-882-65-retail-kg.