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Millet in Koulikoro Gare

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

201–312

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

187–357

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 201 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 187 and 357 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Koulikoro Gare: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 201 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 187 and 357 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 573); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 212–270 228 192–310 311 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 205–289 228 184–326 332 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 201–312 228 185–382 335 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 195–346 226 184–573 321 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 187–357 223 167–537 297 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025266
Aug 2025285
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025305
Apr 2025325
Mar 2025280
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025280
Dec 2024338
Nov 2024375
Oct 2024375
Aug 2024385
Jun 2024311
May 2024296
Apr 2024295
Mar 2024296
Jan 2024279
Nov 2023300
Sept 2023324
Jul 2023314
Jun 2023289
May 2023325
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Oct 2022429
Aug 2022411
Jul 2022402
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022385
Mar 2022306
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022250
Nov 2021236
Oct 2021216
Jul 2021213
Jun 2021210
May 2021210
Apr 2021210
Mar 2021210
Feb 2021204
Jan 2021202
Oct 2020220
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020205
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019190
Feb 2019193
Jan 2019220
Nov 2018220
Oct 2018242
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018240
Feb 2018225
Jan 2018225
Dec 2017232
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017217
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016207
Nov 2016213
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016202
Aug 2016195
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016206
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016194
Oct 2015215
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015219
Nov 2014222
Oct 2014208
Sept 2014204
Aug 2014213
Jul 2014215
Jun 2014218
May 2014215
Apr 2014220
Mar 2014216
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Nov 2013223
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013225
Jul 2013225
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013225
Feb 2013225
Jan 2013224
Oct 2012317
Sept 2012310
Jul 2012319
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012288
Mar 2012249
Feb 2012230
Jan 2012214
Sept 2011162
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011165
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011153
Dec 2010165
Jul 2010174
Jun 2010171
May 2010170
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010180
Nov 2009186
Oct 2009196
Sept 2009206
Aug 2009191
Jul 2009181
Jun 2009174
May 2009160
Apr 2009161
Mar 2009171
Feb 2009164
Jan 2009149
Nov 2008152
Sept 2008180
Jul 2008184
Jun 2008163
May 2008147
Apr 2008145
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008147
Jan 2008146
Dec 2007140
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007147
Jul 2007143
Jun 2007128
May 2007129
Apr 2007130
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007126
Jan 2007126

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-882-73-retail-kg.