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Food basket in Koulikoro Gare

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,408–3,742

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,246–4,289

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,408 and 3,742 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,246 and 4,289 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koulikoro Gare: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,700 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,408 and 3,742 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,246 and 4,289 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,881); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,549–3,242 2,739 2,303–3,714
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,459–3,465 2,740 2,214–3,913
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,408–3,742 2,732 2,225–4,581
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,342–4,146 2,708 2,202–6,881
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,246–4,289 2,671 2,001–6,446
Cost history (189 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,700
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,000
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,192
Aug 20253,420
Jul 20253,600
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,660
Apr 20253,900
Mar 20253,360
Feb 20253,900
Jan 20253,360
Dec 20244,056
Nov 20244,500
Oct 20244,500
Aug 20244,620
Jun 20243,732
May 20243,552
Apr 20243,540
Mar 20243,552
Jan 20243,348
Nov 20233,600
Sept 20233,888
Jul 20233,768
Jun 20233,468
May 20233,900
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Oct 20225,148
Aug 20224,932
Jul 20224,824
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,620
Mar 20223,672
Feb 20223,156
Jan 20223,000
Nov 20212,832
Oct 20212,592
Jul 20212,556
Jun 20212,520
May 20212,520
Apr 20212,520
Mar 20212,520
Feb 20212,448
Jan 20212,424
Oct 20202,640
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,460
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,280
Feb 20192,316
Jan 20192,640
Nov 20182,640
Oct 20182,904
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20182,880
Feb 20182,700
Jan 20182,700
Dec 20172,784
Aug 20172,700
Jul 20172,705
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,604
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,484
Nov 20162,556
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,424
Aug 20162,340
Jul 20162,556
Jun 20162,472
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,328
Oct 20152,580
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,400
Jan 20152,628
Nov 20142,664
Oct 20142,496
Sept 20142,448
Aug 20142,551
Jul 20142,580
Jun 20142,616
May 20142,580
Apr 20142,640
Mar 20142,592
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Nov 20132,676
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,700
Jul 20132,700
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,700
Feb 20132,700
Jan 20132,685
Oct 20123,804
Sept 20123,720
Jul 20123,828
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,450
Mar 20122,988
Feb 20122,760
Jan 20122,565
Sept 20111,950
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20111,980
May 20111,800
Apr 20111,800
Mar 20111,800
Feb 20111,800
Jan 20111,841
Dec 20101,977
Jul 20102,088
Jun 20102,052
May 20102,046
Apr 20102,094
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,158
Nov 20092,235
Oct 20092,354
Sept 20092,478
Aug 20092,292
Jul 20092,172
Jun 20092,091
May 20091,922
Apr 20091,929
Mar 20092,052
Feb 20091,962
Jan 20091,790
Nov 20081,824
Sept 20082,154
Jul 20082,208
Jun 20081,953
May 20081,764
Apr 20081,740
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,764
Jan 20081,756
Dec 20071,674
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,759
Jul 20071,716
Jun 20071,538
May 20071,551
Apr 20071,560
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,518
Jan 20071,518

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189